September 4, 2024: As of mid-2024 China has about 300 of its new J-20 Mighty Dragon stealth fighter in service. This came after China solved a frustrating problem with production of reliable and powerful engines for its J-20 stealth fighter. This allowed mass production of the J-20 to proceed in 2022. For nearly a decade the primary obstacle to mass production has been unreliable locally developed and produced WS10 jet engines. Over the last three years three improved models of the basic WS10 have appeared: the WS-10C (basis model for the J-10), WS-10B3 (with thrust vectoring for greater maneuverability) and WS-15 (with super cruise). There are now over a hundred J-20s in service, all with one of the three WS-10 evolutions. Most are the J-20B model using the WS-10B3 or WS-15 engine. Over the next few years all existing J-20s will be equipped with the WS-15.

In 2022 some of these active-duty J-20Bs were spotted and during 2022 August China conducted air and naval military training operations around the island of Taiwan. The Chinese sent a number of their J-20 stealth fighters aloft armed with air-to-surface and air-to-air missiles carried externally, degrading its stealth capabilities. American and Taiwanese radars and 0ther ELINT (electronic intelligence) equipment got a chance to test the stealth capabilities of the J-20. China has been trying to develop world-class stealth fighters since the 1990s. A decade ago the J-20 appeared, described as a true stealth fighter. It seemed to be, sort of, but eventually turned out to be close but still a work-in-progress. That was promptly confirmed as J-20s flew near Taiwan and were tracked by American and Taiwanese radars.

It wasn’t until 2020 that J-20 officially entered mass production. This was not the original J-20A that was prematurely declared ready in 2017, but a much-improved J-20B. In 2018 China admitted that production of the J-20 was stalled and the manufacturer confirmed the reasons why. The details were explained on state run television, in part to help recruit the skilled workers needed to produce the J-20. There is a labor shortage in China, largely because of the decades of low birth rates mandated by the “one child” policy. The Chinese aircraft manufacturing industry, for both military and commercial aircraft, is booming and workers able to fabricate and assemble components are in short supply. Building the J-20 requires a disproportionate number of skilled workers. Parts of the fuselage are made of alloys that are particularly time-consuming to mold and then fabricate into complex structures. Many of the components come from Chinese suppliers who are still developing and perfecting their production capabilities. In general, the J-20 requires a lot of exotic components and supplies are tight. China also revealed that development of the J-20 has cost $4.4 billion as of 2018, and that the construction cost for each aircraft is $110 million. In addition to the manufacturing difficulties, there were performance problems with the prototypes and six J-20A production models turned over to the Chinese Air Force by 2018.

This came after a late 2017 announcement that the J-20 had officially entered service. At that time, it was obvious, via aerial photos of the factory and air bases, that production of the J-20 was not actually happening. The manufacturer had planned to build three a month initially but from mid-2017 to mid-2018 production turned out to have been zero. At that time there were apparently a dozen more in various stages of completion. By early 2018 it was known that there were several potential problems with the J-20 production but the main ones had to do with stealth, as in the delicate materials on the airframe that make radar detection less effective. The other problem was the engines. In 2018 the WS-10Cs installed were a stopgap and not efficient enough to support super cruise (go supersonic without using the afterburner).

China has had persistent problems developing high-performance jet engines. China has been developing the more powerful and super cruise ready WS-15 engine since the 1990s, for a larger aircraft like the J-20. Despite a lot of effort, the WS-15 was still not able to work reliably enough for service, rather than a prototype aircraft. Officials also confirmed rumors that a WS-15 exploded during a 2015 static ground test. That failure had been a secret, but when an engine this important fails by blowing up, the incident is difficult to hide. It also turned out that the WS-15 design and manufacturing problems were less difficult to fix than those encountered with other components and the skilled labor shortage.

In 2018 no date was given as to when the WS-15 would be available for use or whether it would have the same thrust vectoring. This is the ability to move the hot jet exhaust in different directions in order to make the fighter more maneuverable. The American F-22 uses this. At first, a more powerful and reliable version of the WS-15 for J-20 was believed possible by 2020, but changes in the shape and weight of the WS-15 would require modifications to the shape of the J-20 which in turn required lots of testing to ensure that stealth was not compromised. The factory would have to install new or modified manufacturing equipment and suppliers would have to do the same to produce the new airframe components. Apparently, all of those problems were solved by mid-2020. This included the WS-15 reliability problems. As of 2022 the latest version of the WS-15 had improved performance and reliability sufficiently for regular use in active service squadrons. Chinese engine experts also pointed out that the engines used by the F-22 and F-35 are at least a decade ahead of the tech used in the WS-15. Left unsaid was the fact that China had gone from no locally designed and built fighter jet engines to the WS-15 in a few decades and another decade or so to catch up was expected.

The WS-15 saga was one of repeated disappointments and there may be more of that. Some high-performance jet engines are more reliable than others. Western engine manufacturers have been through this for decades as each new generation of engines was developed. China knows of that history and is resigned to repeating it. In 2018 it was announced that production models of the WS-15 were to be available in 2019. This was a reasonable assumption because the WS-15 has been in development since about 2003 and the first working version appeared in 2008. Based on past engine development experience the WS-15 should have been ready for mass production by 2020, although the skilled labor shortage turned out to be more of a problem than anticipated and delayed things for two years. China overcame these production problems because you can’t mass produce the J-20B without mass production of reliable WS-15 engines.

There was another reason for the early 2017 announcement that at least a dozen J-20s had been delivered to the Chinese air force as part of a new fighter squadron. This information was exaggerated and released to help with export sales because at the time Chinese media was reporting that Pakistan had agreed to buy J-20s. Numbers were not announced and there were still questions about how effective the J-20 actually is. Pakistani interest in the J-20 may have more to do with the fact that China is the only major-power ally they have, their main supplier of weapons and, best of all, a neighbor. Pakistan cannot afford many $110 million aircraft and China is not known to be generous with credit or discounts when it comes to high tech gear like this.

while China began offering its 28-ton J-31 stealth fighter to export customers in 2014 as the FC-31, it was not until 2017 that efforts were made to export the more advanced J-20. The manufacturer of the J-20 is CAC (Chengdu Aircraft Company), which also produces the JF-17 and J-10. The JF-17 is a joint effort with Pakistan and Pakistan is the main customer. J-31s are not yet ready for mass production, in part because it has some of the same production problems as the J-20 and China is deliberately putting more emphasis on getting the J-20 into mass production.

The J-31 has undergone a number of modifications and the manufacturer is trying to develop a version that could be used from China’s new aircraft carriers. As of 2022 the 28-ton J-31 is still in the prototype stage. It made its first flight in 2012, a year after the J-20. The stalled development is due to the fact it is being developed without government assistance, other than access to information of American stealth aircraft obtained by Internet based and other forms of espionage.

The J-20 definitely had a head start on the J-31. Before the originally scheduled J-20 mass production could begin in late 2015, eight prototypes were built. There were at least two original J-20A prototypes, and in 2013 a new J-20B prototype appeared that had several modifications and is estimated to have a max weight of 37 tons. By 2018 several more prototypes have been built along with at least six production models plus over a dozen stalled on the assembly line. All of these were built with the understanding that some major (and time-consuming) refurbishing might be needed once the WS-15 engine was ready for service.

Work on the J-20 began in the late 1990s, and the Chinese went forward on the assumption that it could be 25 years or more before they had a competitive stealth fighter-bomber in service. The twin engine J-20 first appeared to be about the same weight class as the non-stealthy American 30-ton F-15C, but the production model was closer in weight to the F22. By comparison, the U.S. F-35A stealth fighter-bomber is a 31-ton, single engine fighter, while the twin-engine F-22 is slightly larger at 38 tons. The Russian Su-57 weighed in at 37 tons and its production is also stalled over technical issues. The Russians can make more powerful and reliable engines than the Chinese but are still having problems with their other techs like stealth coatings and electronics. At the same time Russia officially put production of its Su-57 stealth fighter on hold and suffers from some of the same production problems as the Chinese.

While the J-20 looks like the American F-22 when viewed head-on, its overall shape, weight, and engine power is closer to the older, non-stealthy American F-15C. In other words, the J-20 is 20.4 meters long, with a wingspan of 13.5 meters. The J-20 has about the same wing area as the F-15C, which is about 25 percent less than the F-22, which is a few percent larger than the F-15 in terms of length and wingspan. Worse for the J-20 is the fact that its engine power is about the same as the F-15C, while the F-22 has 65 percent more power. With the afterburner turned on, the J-20 has more power than the F-15C and nearly as much as the F-22. But because the afterburner consumes so much fuel, you can't use it for more than a few minutes at a time. The afterburner also generates a lot more heat which makes an aircraft more visible to heat sensors. The J-20B was designed to use super cruise with a powerful enough engine, joining the F-22, Eurofighter, and Swedish Gripen as aircraft that can super cruise. The J-20B appears capable of doing lots of engine-dependent things during tests or in theory that it has not been able to sustain in regular service.

The J-20 has some stealth when it's coming at you head on, but from any other aspect, the J-20 will light up the radar screen unless it has effective radar absorbing material on the exterior. For this reason, the J-20 initially appeared to be a developmental aircraft, not the prototype of a new model headed for mass production. China soon made it clear that the J-20 was indeed the basis for a new fighter and would go through as many design and shape changes needed to become combat ready. Based on recent Chinese warplane development projects, especially the J-11, it was believed that the J-20 still has a long development road ahead of it. There were some obvious changes between the first and the later prototypes, but nothing all that drastic. Thus, it was surprising when the J-20 was declared ready for service in 2017 but not so surprising when production was quietly halted because of unspecified problems. Yet the Chinese have been competent and relentless in developing complex technologies and there was no reason to believe they won’t get the J-20 working. That has apparently happened and was confirmed as J-20Bs showed up in operational J-20 fighter squadrons. That finally took place in 2021.

The J-20 is only the fourth stealth warplane to fly, the others being the American F-22 and F-35, plus the Russian Su-57. The older U.S. F-117 was actually a light bomber and the B-2 was obviously a heavy bomber. While the shape of the J-20 confers a degree of stealth (invisibility to radar), even more electronic invisibility comes from special materials covering the aircraft. It's not known how far along the Chinese are in creating, or stealing data on, these materials. China would most likely use the J-20 singly, or in small groups, to seek out and attack American carriers. For the J-20 to be a superior fighter capable of that, it would need electronics, including radars and defense systems on a par with the F-35 and F-22 as well as powerful and reliable engines and effective radar absorbing materials.

The J-31 and J-20 are further evidence that China is determined to develop its own high-tech military gear. While China is eager to develop advanced military technology locally, it recognizes that this takes time and more effort than nations new to this expect. Thus, China is trying to avoid the mistakes Russia made in this area. That means having competing designs and developing necessary supporting industries as part of that. All this takes a lot of time and involves lots of little (and some major) failures. The Chinese are doing it right and are willing to wait until they get the military tech that is truly world class.