November 27, 2024:
In three years of fighting invading Russians, Ukraine has learned that the best defense is frequent attacks on Russian targets. Initially, long range missiles and bombs provided by NATO came with a prohibition on using them against targets deep inside Russia. In response, the Ukrainian built their own long-range drones. Drones are relatively cheap, costing anywhere from a few hundred to about a thousand dollars each. Ukraine has increasingly used its long-range drones, equipped with explosives, to attack targets in Russia consisting of large stockpiles of munitions. One of these attacks destroyed 30,000 tons of shells, rockets and missiles. The explosion was so powerful that it showed up as an earthquake on seismographs. Russian units operating in Kursk and Belgorod provinces near the Ukrainian border will have little ammunition over the next few months. Few Ukrainian troops will be needed to guard these border areas because of the Russian munitions shortage.
Long-range Ukrainian drone attacks also destroyed a lot of long-range Russian missiles. That means planned Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and energy production facilities will have to wait until 2025, when more missiles may be available. Another complication for Russia is the collapse of their railroad system. This has been going on since 2023 and almost reached the point where it is often impossible to move troops or material via the crippled railroads.
While Russia is having problems preventing their weapons from getting blown up by Ukrainian drones, the Ukrainians are receiving more weapons and munitions from their NATO supporters. A newly elected American president has pledged to stop the war in Ukraine and sending more of these long-range missiles may do just that. Between the munitions shortage and its rapidly collapsing rail network, Russia can’t do much attacking and is vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks. Russian leader Vladimir Putin says he will never surrender. At the rate Russia is losing munitions and transportation resources Putin will end up trying to explain to other Russians why Russia is losing and the Ukrainians are winning. He also has to explain why the Russian railroads are not operating anymore. It’s beginning to snow in Russia and getting enough fuel to keep Russians warm and enough food to keep them fed is a necessary distraction for Putin. With no working railroads and an army with no ammunition, winning the war in Ukraine is a low priority issue at the moment.
Finally, there is the dire state of the Russian economy and growing anger over the large number of Russian soldiers killed or wounded with little to show for it. The Russian people have to deal with rising inflation and shortages in stores throughout the country. Currently Putin has more problems than solutions and winning the war in Ukraine is a receding goal.