November 3, 2007:
The
Pakistani security forces (military, para-military and police) have about a
million personnel, and about a quarter of them are involved in
counter-terrorism operations. Casualties, for a force this large, have not been
high. While dead and wounded have been about a thousand this year (much less
than one percent of the counter-terrorism force) desertions and AWOL (absent
without leave, meaning they are expected to return eventually) have been
running at a rate of over five percent a year. In other words, more than ten
times the number killed or wounded.
This high desertion/AWOL rate
should come as no surprise. At least twenty percent of the troops are recruited
from the tribal areas, and about a third of Pakistanis describe themselves as
Islamic conservatives (and many thus partial to Islamic terrorists). Islamic
conservatives are particularly negative about killing fellow Moslems (unless
the victims are "bad" Moslems). The tribal types are not enthusiastic about
fighting fellow tribals (despite the large number of nasty feuds between many
tribes.) This accounts for the many reports of low morale in army units. The
government is particularly worried about the many officers who are tribals or
Islamic conservative. These are fewer, in proportion to those in the ranks.
That's because the government has, for the past few years, been seeking out and
dismissing officers who sympathize with Islamic radical organizations. This
still leaves thousands of tribal officers on the job, and these fellows are
very handy when fighting tribes, as they can use tribal connections to defuse
hostile situations.
The greatest fear is that some
pro-terrorist officers will organize a rebellion. Overall, that is not a major
threat. But for those units in the tribal areas, it would be a major setback.