May 3, 2024: Russia has lost at least ten percent of its combat aircraft since they invaded Ukraine in early 2022. Since the 2022 invasion Russia has lost 347 combat aircraft and 325 helicopters. Ukrainian losses have been similar, with 346 combat aircraft and 270 helicopters lost so far, all or almost all of Russian design. European NATO nations are providing Ukraine with fifty or sixty American-made F-16 fighters. These are arriving in 2024, as quickly as Ukrainian pilots can be trained to fly them. NATO countries have over a thousand F-16s and the U.S. Air Force operates over 900 of them.

European NATO nations offered to supply over 60 F-16 jet fighters and these are already arriving in Ukraine and all of them are supposed to be in Ukraine by the end of 2024. Pilot training is continuing and Ukrainian pilots who have completed their training speak highly of the F-16 and its capabilities, especially compared to the MiG-29, which was designed as the Russian equivalent of the F-16 during the Cold War. MiG-29’s and F-16’s have never fought each other but many Western pilots have flown the MiG-29 because after the Cold War ended many East European nations were soon NATO members, and still had their Cold War era MiG-29s. The East European MiG-29 pilots preferred the F-16 once they had flown in one. But the pilots who had flown both F-16s and MiG-29s warned that the MiG-29 could be a formidable opponent for an F-16 if the MiG was flown by an experienced pilot. The Cold War ended in 1991 and MiG-29s have not seen much combat since then while the F-16s have. Pilot quality will determine how well MiG-29s do against F-16s.

Russia has a problem replacing lost aircraft. Production of new aircraft in Russia was greatly reduced by economic sanctions, which include the loss of key aircraft components formerly obtained from foreign suppliers. That means Russia is only able to replace five percent of aircraft lost in combat. Meanwhile Ukraine, which also lost hundreds of their Russian-made combat aircraft, most of them Cold War era MiG-29s, and most of which were provided since the war started by NATO nations which used to be Soviet satellites, now has access to hundreds of American and European F-16s which are being replaced by the new F-35s.

Currently some Ukrainian pilots are training in F-16s, which have been the world’s most popular post-Cold War combat aircraft. Communist governments and the Soviet Union collapsed by 1991 and eastern European nations, recently under communist rule, wanted to join NATO so the Russians, Communist or not, would be less likely to return. During the last three decades these former Communist controlled nations joined NATO and have been replacing their Russian weapons, like MiG29s, with Western models that are usually F-16s.

The F-16 and MiG-29 are both considered 4th generation, 1970s and 80s, aircraft. The 5th generation, so far, consists of the American F-22 and F-35 as well as China’s J-20. The MiG-29 dates from the 1980s and was the last aircraft designed by the now defunct MiG company. Rival Sukhoi later introduced two new aircraft, the Su-24 and Su-35. Both performed poorly in combat over Ukraine. The MiG-29 entered service in 1983. Some 1,600 MiG-29s were produced, with about 900 of them exported. The 22-ton aircraft is roughly comparable to the F-16, but it depends a lot on which version of either aircraft you are talking about. Russia is making a lot of money upgrading MiG-29s. Not just adding new electronics but also making the airframe more robust.

The MiG-29 was originally rated at 2,500 total flight hours. At that time, Russia expected MiG-29s to fly about a hundred or so hours a year. Didn’t work out that way. India, for example, flew them at nearly twice that rate, as did Malaysia. Eventually Russia offered an upgrade to the airframe so that the aircraft could fly up to 4,000 hours, with more life extension upgrades promised. This has not been easy, as the MiG-29 has a history of unreliability and premature breakdowns, both mechanical and electronic, which indicates a flawed design.

Western warplanes are built to last longer. The F-16C was originally designed for a service life of 4,000 hours in the air. Advances in engineering, materials, and maintenance techniques extended that to over 8,000 hours. Because of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, F-16s sent to these areas flew over a thousand hours a year more than what they would fly in peacetime. That led to a refurbishment program to extend F-16C flight hours to 10,000 or more.

The U.S. Air Force had to refurbish several hundred of its 22-ton F-16 fighters, because their replacement, the 31-ton F-35, had not arrived on time. Most existing F-16s are old, and by 2016, many were too old to operate. Back then the average age of F-16s was over 20 years, and the average aircraft had over 5,000 flight hours on it. In 2009 the first Block 40 F-16 passed 7,000 hours. In 2008 the first of the earliest models, Block 25 F-16s, passed 7,000 hours. While older F-16s are being retired for their age, they tend to have at least twice as many flight hours as their Russian counterparts. Because of greater durability and ease of maintenance, the seemingly more expensive Western fighters are actually cheaper in the lifetime of an aircraft because they last longer and are easier to maintain than equivalent Russian designs.

The Block 70 F-16 was also sold to Slovakia which ordered 14, Bulgaria asked for eight and Bahrain received 16 new F-16s plus twenty older F-16s upgraded to Block 7o. South Korea upgraded over a hundred of its F-16s to the Block 70 standard. The F-16V was the popular choice for post-Cold War members of NATO, like Slovakia and Bulgaria, seeking to replace early model MiG-29s. New users of the F-16 also purchase spares, maintenance equipment, training, aircraft accessories, like look and shoot helmets plus tech support and assistance in setting up maintenance and support facilities. These can be used for other aircraft types and are a good investment. The sale includes air-to-air missiles and smart bombs as well.

The F-16V was introduced in 2012 as the last model of the F-16 but production of the F-16 did not halt as planned in 2016 because possible further sales of the F-16V turned into actual orders for more F-16s. Additionally it became possible to upgrade some or all of the older F-16s to the Block 7o standard. These Block 7o upgrades are not always possible, or practical, for the oldest models of the F-16. These upgrades include replacing many structural elements as well as installing more powerful engines and the most modern electronics and fire control systems available.

Although production of the F-16 ceased temporarily, its manufacturer Lockheed Martin, known as LockMart, continues to do upgrades and refurbishments, and produce new F-16Vs due to buyer demand. The changes in the V model are considerable. The airframe is upgraded and strengthened to enable 12,000 flight hours per aircraft. The electronics undergo an even more extensive upgrade which involves replacing the mechanical radar with an AESA phased array radar, an upgraded cockpit, a Sniper targeting pod, a Link 16 digital data link and upgraded navigation gear. The newly redesigned cockpit is all digital and flat screen touch displays that replace dozens of gauges and switches and make it much easier to fly. AESA and the new fire control system make it possible to track multiple aircraft at once as well as track vehicles on land or vessels at sea. The targeting pod enables the pilot to confirm visually what is on the surface and promptly attack it with smart bombs or missiles. LockMart initially expected to get orders for at least 700 newly built F-16V or less expensive upgrades. An upgrade brings in as little as $10 million per aircraft while five or ten of these upgrades equal the price of one new F-16V. But when you have orders for hundreds of F-16V upgrades you have a lot of F-16 work.

The F-16 thus follows the path of previous best selling fighters. During the 1947-1991 Cold War Russia built over 10,000 MiG-21s and the U.S over 5,000 F-4s. After 1991 warplane manufacturing plummeted about 90 percent. However, the F-16 has been popular enough to keep the production lines going strong into the 2020s. The U.S. still has about 900 F-16s in service, with many of them in reserve units. F-16s built so far went to 27 countries before Ukraine requested them. America has hundreds in storage, available for sale on the used airplane market. The end of the Cold War led to a sharp cut in U.S. Air Force fighter squadrons. Moreover, the new F-35 is on its way to replacing all U.S. F-16s by the 2030. The U.S. has plenty of little-used F-16s sitting around, while many allies need low cost jet fighters. Many current F-16 users planned to replace the F-16 with the F-35 but that aircraft costs more than twice as much as a new F-16V, so air forces are seeking to operate a mixed force of F-35s and late model F-16s. A current example of this is Poland, which is sending its older MiG-29s to Ukraine. These have a few good years left, which is all Ukraine needs.

Since the 1990s most F-16s produced were for export and some cost as much as $70 million each, like the F-16I for Israel. Some nations, like South Korea, built over a hundred F-16s under license. The 16 ton F-16 also has an admirable combat record and is very popular with pilots. It has been successful at ground support as well. When equipped with 4-6 smart bombs, it is an effective bomber. Since first entering service some 4,600 F-16s have flown over 12 million hours. Despite fears that a single engine fighter would be less safe, F-16s have, in the 21st century, suffered an accident rate (loss or major damage) of only 2.4 per 100,000 flight hours.

The most successful F-16 user so far is Israel which set a number of combat records with its F-16s. Israel plans to keep some of its late model F-16s flying until 2030 as it retires the oldest ones. At the end of 2016, Israel retired the last of its 125 F-16A fighters. The first 70 were acquired in 1980 and 1981 and included 8 two-seater F-16B trainers. One of the F-16As achieved a record by being the single F-16 with the most air-to-air kills, 7, all achieved in 1982 using three different pilots. Overall Israeli F-16s have shot down eight or more enemy aircraft in combat. While the F-16 is widely used, its combat operations have almost all involved using missiles or smart bombs against ground targets. So far, where F-16s have operated in a hostile environment, they were able to maintain air supremacy, often to the extent it was air domination.

The Ukrainians are well aware of the F-16’s track record, especially when compared to the MiG-29. That’s why Ukraine kept asking for F-16s and eventually got them. By the end of 2024 it will be known how well F-16s operate against similar aircraft and modern anti-aircraft systems the Russians have. The Russians are not looking to this because they can’t replace losses while Ukraine has hundreds of F-16s sitting in foreign countries and available to replace Ukrainian losses. The war has lasted long enough, and Ukraine has had so much access to Western pilot-training programs, that it has enough fighter pilots who only need orientation in F-16’s.