August 17, 2024: Over two years of fighting in Ukraine have left Russia with few combat capable troops. Russian losses are nearly twice those of Ukraine’s, who were mainly on the defensive and received large shipments of weapons and equipment from NATO countries. Not surprisingly, the NATO supplied weapons proved superior to most of what the Russians were using.

Russia has been subjected to heavy economic sanctions since the invasion began in early 2022. As a result Russia had to improvise in order to revive some weapons production. This included using a lot of their oil & natural gas exports income to purchase and smuggle in weapons components that were not manufactured in Russia. Munitions, especially guided missiles, unguided rockets and artillery shells are still in short supply. Same situation with combat troops. Military age men in Russia have noticed the large number of Russian soldiers killed or wounded in Ukraine and increasingly seek to avoid military service. Russia has been forced to send police to workplaces and homes of military age Russians and compel them to serve in the infantry. Russian men are willing to serve in non-combat jobs, but the greatest need is for infantry. So far, several hundred thousand Russian soldiers have been killed or seriously wounded and disabled. At this point there are few Russian men willing to join the army and become replacements. The munitions shortages mean that Russian soldiers attacking have less supporting fire and greater chances of getting killed or wounded.

All this has meant that large scale Russian attacks are now very rare and most attacks are small and low intensity. Another problem is that the front line in Ukraine is over 1,200 kilometers long and it takes a lot of troops just to keep the trenches and strongpoints manned. While the Ukrainians still want to drive Russian troops out of the 25 percent of Ukraine occupied by the Russians, that is less likely to happen because of Ukraine’s shortage of troops and munitions. Russian leaders are now proposing a truce but are not yet desperate enough to evacuate Ukrainian territory they occupy. If the NATO munitions supplies keep coming, the Ukrainians have a chance of changing Russian attitudes on how much territory they are willing to continue fighting to hold.