November 30, 2024:
NATO analysts believe that Russia will continue to be a threat even after the Ukraine War is over. The invasion of Ukraine proved that the post-World War II creators of NATO were correct. While Russia was threatening from 1947 to 2021, that 74 year Cold War turned hot in 2022 when Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine. Vladimir Putin, a former secret police officer, gained control of Russia in 1999 and made no secret of his desire to reassemble the Soviet Union. This would involve persuading or conquering the other fourteen nations that came to life in 1991 when the Soviet Union was disbanded.
The largest of the fifteen states was the Russian Federation. The next largest was Ukraine and that made Ukraine the first nation Russia needed to subjugate and absorb. The 1991 Soviet Union had 300 million people. 2022 Russia had 142 million and Ukraine 46 million. None of the other post-Soviet states wanted to rejoin the Soviet Union.
While NATO didn’t want to fight Russia, it was willing to supply Ukraine with weapons, munitions and economic aid to defeat the Russian invaders. NATO also backed international sanctions on Russia which crippled the Russian economy and made it difficult for Russian to continue its war against Ukraine.
Russia, frustrated that its conventional forces could not conquer Ukraine, threatened to use its nuclear weapons. That was not a real threat because three NATO nations had nuclear weapons. In addition to the United States, France and Britain had nuclear weapons that could be delivered by aircraft or missiles fired from submarines. The nuclear threat was a phantom and Russia insisted its conventional forces would keep fighting in Ukraine until NATO got tired of the expense of supporting Ukraine. NATO nations believed Russia would give up first because the war was making life difficult for the Russian people, who were increasingly hostile to the war.
Some NATO members are suggesting that NATO members be allowed to send troops to assist the Ukrainians in expelling the Russian forces. It is pointed out that the NATO coalition has a population of nearly a billion people. Adding Ukraine would make it a billion. Russia does not want Ukraine in NATO but Ukraine sees NATO membership as its only long term protection from Russia. A 1994 treaty had Ukraine give up its nuclear weapons in return for Russian promises to forever respect Ukrainian independence. Britain and the U.S. pledged to assist Ukraine if Russia violated the treaty. This is why the NATO threat to send troops to aid Ukraine is frightening. Russia reneged on the 1994 promises and the Americans and British agreed to support Ukraine if that happened. It happened and Russia faces war with the largest economic coalition on the planet.
Other NATO members may join the U.S. and Britain, if only to ensure that the NATO ability to retaliate involves more than two of the 32 NATO members. By providing massive support for Ukraine, and NATO membership after the war, NATO serves a warning to China that threatening NATO members is risky. China needs trade with NATO nations more than a military stalemate or war. China disagreed with the Russian decision to invade Ukraine and has been circumspect and stingy in providing economic aid for its neighbor and economic partner.