November 18,2008:
Iran claims to have tested a new IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic
Missile.) Called the Sejil, Iran claims it is a solid fuel missile. From
available photos, the new missile appears wider than the older Shahab 3, which
is a less reliable liquid fuel missile. A year ago, Iran had a failed test of a
solid fuel ballistic missile it called "Ashura." The Sajil appears to
be the Ashura with a new name, and modifications that make it work. It's hard
to tell what the Iranians are up to, but their past activities indicate there
is more propaganda, than engineering advances, involved. The big question is,
who did they get the solid fuel manufacturing technology from? There are many
potential vendors (North Korea, Russia, China, or even stolen from the West).
The Ashura test failure last year involved some problem with the second stage,
not with the solid fuel rocket motors. Iran has been manufacturing solid fuel
for smaller rockets for over a decade.
For the last
four years, Iran has been producing Shahab 3 IRBMs. This missile is basically 1960s technology,
with the addition of GPS guidance. Russian and North Korean missile technology
has been obtained to make the Shahab 3 work. This has resulted in a missile
that apparently will function properly about 80 percent of the time, and
deliver a warhead of about one ton, to a range of some 1,700 kilometers, to
within a hundred meters of where it was aimed. By world standards, this is a
pretty effective weapon. A solid fuel version of this missile would be, if the
solid fuel was of reasonable quality, about ten percent more reliable than
liquid fuel.
Iran has continued
to refine the Shahab 3 design, and conduct test firings. Iran is believed to
have 50-100 Shahab 3s, and is building about one a month. Israel appears to be
the main target. Iran has threatened Israel with destruction, rather openly and
for several years. Shahab 3's could be fired with high explosive warheads, and
hit, with enough accuracy, to kill mostly Jews, and not Israeli Arabs or Palestinians.
Israel has
threatened to retaliate with nukes if Israel is hit with chemical or nuclear
warheads. Israel has Arrow anti-missile systems that can stop Shahab 3s, but
only a few at a time. If Iran launched a dozen or more Shahab 3s
simultaneously, some would get through. If Iran had several hundred Shahab 3s,
they could launch most of them at Israel, using high explosive warheads, and do
a lot of damage. Israel could respond with its own Jericho II missile, but this
system was designed for use with nuclear weapons, and Israel apparently only
has 20-30 of them. Israel could respond with air strikes, and cruise missiles
from submarines in the Persian Gulf or Indian Ocean. But, again, this would
appear as a limited response to massive Iranian missile attacks. An Iranian
attack with nuclear warheads would kill a large number of Moslems, and even
radical Iran might be put off by that, because Israel would likely respond in
kind.
A large
number of IRBMs could also be used to intimidate nearby Arab countries, as
these missiles could damage oil production facilities. If Iran gets nuclear
weapons, it would take 5-10 years to develop the complex engineering required
to create a nuclear warhead that would survive the stresses of missile launch,
and detonate as intended over a distant target. Russia or China might provide
such engineering secrets, but given the warlike pronouncements and radical
politics of the Iranians, probably not.