December 22, 2007:
There are only five communist states left
(China, North Korea, Vietnam, Laos and Cuba), and all are suffering from the
same, long-standing, problem. That is, many of their best trained and most
talented people want to go somewhere else. These police states tolerate that,
to a certain extent. China encouraged its young and talented students to go
abroad for training and experience. While a police state, China has chucked the
state control of the economy, and let a booming free market develop. This has,
as expected, brought a lot of its overseas students back. North Korea is the
other extreme, and is one big prison camp. Getting out is difficult, and very
dangerous if you don't know who to bribe. In the middle is Cuba, which has
loosened up its economy somewhat since Russia cut off its subsidies in the
early 1990s. But despite 11 percent GDP growth last year, it's still a police
state with the government owning, and running, most of the economy. So an
increasing number of young and educated Cubans are getting out. In the last two
years, some 77,000 Cubans have entered the United States. Compare that to 1994,
when Cuba briefly allowed anyone to leave (some 38,000 Cubans took the
opportunity and fled). But those were Cubans of all classes. Now it's the
doctors, engineers and college educated in general who are using their talents,
and often bribes, to take a "vacation" to Mexico, and then cross the border
into the U.S. Because of Cold War era
laws, once a Cuban sets foot on U.S. soil, they are allowed to stay and claim
political asylum (because they come from a communist police state.)
The North Korean leaders note the Cuban
experience, and pat themselves on the back for correctly understanding the
situation. If North Korea made it easy for their citizens to travel abroad,
hundreds of thousands would promptly flee, with the most talented and best
educated in the lead. The Cuban leadership hopes to stem the flow by promising
more economic reforms and opportunities for the young. But, so far, those
promises are not being kept, and the number of people leaving keeps increasing.
At the current rate, Cuba will have lost nearly 300,000 people in the first
decade of the 21st century.