October 10, 2023: During the last year the Philippines has faced growing pressure and threats in the South China Sea from China over territorial disputes. There are growing instances of illegal Chinese operations in the South China Sea. This is nothing new because these intrusions have increased since 2016. It’s all about fishing, and natural gas oil deposits in the bottom of the shallow offshore waters. The first Filipino offshore oil discovery began producing off Palawan Island in 1976. There were indications that a lot more oil and natural gas was present off the coasts of various islands, including some in the South China Sea but within the Filipino EEC (Exclusive Economic Zone). By 2000 China was on its way to becoming the largest importer of oil in the world and that led to more Chinese threats against any oil field development in the South China Sea that was not controlled by China. This violates international law but China simply ignores that and threatens to use force against any other offshore oil production development efforts. The Chinese threats never escalate into actual violence.

Despite the Chinese threats, the South China Sea situation is becoming more difficult for China because the Philippines came up with several ways to reduce that threat. One effort was aimed at reducing corrupt Chinese influence in the Philippines. That is the main reason why the Filipino government canceled three Chinese-financed railroad construction projects worth nine billion dollars. This was part of a $24 billion Chinese proposal for projects that improved Filipino ports and transportation networks. Cancelation of these projects has been under consideration for over a year because of vague loan terms and Chinese failure to perform. The Chinese are believed to be using the loan program as a weapon to coerce the Philippines into making concessions in the South China Sea, especially when it comes to offshore oil and natural gas.

A national opinion survey conducted in 2022 found that Filipinos trusted the United States, Australia and Japan the most while trusting China and Russia the least. Respondents were asked to rank a list of ten nations in terms of trustworthiness. The results of the survey were, in order of trust; the United States, Australia, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Britain, Indonesia, India, Russia and China. There was some support for China but the U.S. had more than three times as much support. This meant the Americans had the support of most Filipinos while China had only a small minority. Only Russia and China had the majority of Filipinos mistrusting them. Trust of Russia used to be positive but the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and Chinese support for it made Russia nearly as untrustworthy as China to most Filipinos. Until China expanded its “lost territory” claims to the South China Sea two decades ago. China was seen as a potential ally of, and investor in, the Philippines. Despite numerous Filipino diplomatic efforts, China refused to compromise on its claims. At this point China is seen as the greatest threat to the Philippines, especially since the Chinese appear to have additional claims on Filipino territory and independence as a nation.

The United States is the most powerful ally against Chinese South China Sea claims. The U.S. Navy continues to conduct FONOP (freedom of navigation operations) by sending warships, usually just a destroyer, near South China Sea islands China claims as their territory. This includes the Spratly Islands, which are an important part of the South China Sea areas that China considers within its territorial waters. The Philippines has military detachments on nine of the disputed islands or reefs. These are part of an effort to oppose the illegal Chinese claims. The U.S. carries out most of the FONOPs in the South China Sea while also declaring Chinese claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea as completely unlawful, as is the Chinese campaign of bullying to control these resources. In 2016 an international court ruled against China and stated that occupying uninhabitable rocks and building artificial islands did not confer an EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). Ownership of “rocks” gets, at best, 22 kilometers of territorial waters from the edge of each rock rather than 360 kilometers for EEZ rights. Before this change the U.S. merely called for China to comply with the court ruling, something China said it would not do even before the court completed its deliberations. The Americans did continue to carry out aerial and naval FONOP with warships to assert the right of innocent passage. This annoyed the Chinese, who claimed most of the South China Sea was under Chinese control and no foreign ship or aircraft could enter without permission. China has been claiming areas long recognized as belonging to Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan and the Philippines. That has caused all these nations, plus the United States, Japan, South Korea and Australia to form an alliance to halt Chinese aggression. European nations whose merchant ships travel through the South China Sea also carry out FONOPs.

Chinese counters FONOPS with its own unique tactics. This includes hundreds of unarmed Chinese fishing trawlers that receive subsidies from the government in return of occasional duty as a seagoing mob of trawlers that blocks Filipino access to fishing grounds long used by Filipino fishermen. Chinese coast guard ships are equipped with a powerful water cannon that can quickly cover another ship with a powerful stream of seawater. China recently added another novel tactic, a string of connected floats several hundred meters long that blocked Filipino access to a shoal where the Filipinos long used for fishing. This is a form of Non-Lethal Aggression the Chinese have long used with some success. Not this time, a Filipino scuba diver with a knife cut the line connecting the floats and Filipino fishing boats had their access restored. The Chinese coast guard and fishing ships withdrew with the attitude of disdain and “we’ll be back.”