April 15, 2025: Recently Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov sought to dominate neighboring Ingushetia as the first move in establishing a Chechen-controlled coalition in the region. Kadyrov ran into problems with the neighboring Magas region as he tried to a Chechen-controlled Islamic muftiate throughout the Caucasus. This ran into problems because the leaders and residents of Chechnya, Ingushetia and Magas did not get along. Kadyrov is also criticized for seeking to absorb Ingushetia and portions of Dagestan and Chechnya.

Kadyrov is trying to use Islam to strengthen his control over Chechnya and other regions of the Caucasus he covets. Kadyrov is not a religious man, but a conniving politician trying to bring all the Moslem regions of the Caucasus under his control. Georgia, the only Christian state in the Caucasus fears it would be next on the absorption list if Kadyrov succeeds. This sort of grab for regional grab for power can be expected on a more general power struggle after President Putin of Russia dies.

There have also been discussions in Cairo, Egypt involving Caucasus muftis and local religious scholars. Each part of the Caucasus, except Georgia, has a muftiate to administer religious life in the various regions. Given the amount of alcoholic beverages consumed in the Caucasus, this effort appears to be superficial.

Despite those problems Kadyrov is determined to control the Moslim Spiritual Directorates or MSDs in each region. Chechen efforts to create new MSDs in the region appear to be succeeding. Kadyrov uses some brutally effective methods. Any groups that oppose him are largely eliminated as Kadyrov arranges to have many of these critics mobilized into the army and sent to Ukraine to be killed.

Despite Kadyrov’s success at controlling or punishing his opponents, he threatens to destabilize the region. The Russian government has granted Kadyrov power in the Caucasus because he keeps the peace, No peace, no Kadyrov.

This would be the end of Kadyrov's two decades of power in the region. Fifteen years ago Russia finally established peace in Chechnya by putting the toughest warlords in charge. This is an old tactic and has worked in the past. One problem was that the Russians did not want to divide the province into smaller parts, each run by a different warlord. So, as a compromise, Ramzan Kadyrov, and his allies, were put in charge of the Chechen Republic provincial government via elections. Meanwhile, the other major group, led by the three Yamadaev brothers and their clans, were put in charge of the Vostok Battalion. This unit, with a strength of 300-400 men, was largely composed of rebels who have accepted amnesty. To separate the Vostok Battalion from the government, it was attached to the Russian Army's 42nd Motorized Rifle Division, which was stationed in Chechnya.

There was still friction between Kadyrov's provincial police and counter-terror forces, and the Vostok Battalion. The Vostok men did not get along with the provincial forces, and eventually growing tensions erupted into a daylong gun battle in the town of Gudermes. The Vostok Battalion called on the 42nd division to send reinforcements, which didn't happen. Instead, the Russians prevented the provincial forces from getting reinforcements, and eventually got both sides to stop shooting. At least eighteen were killed, and many more wounded.

Both sides accused each other of running criminal operations like kidnapping, extortion, and prostitution. Both sides were right, and the hostility was the result of turf battles. Who should be the chief criminal in what part of the province? The Russians had to sort all this out, otherwise, the fighting would resume.