October 2 0 , 2023: The primary reason Ukraine outwits Russia is because they must in order to survive the Russian invasion. Russia is much larger than Ukraine and has nearly four times as many people and a larger economy and military. Before deciding to invade, Russia calculated, based on what turned out to be flawed information, that they would invade Ukraine from the north, where the border is closest to the capital Kyiv, and win a quick and cheap victory. It didn’t work out as planned. Part of the reason was that Russian leader Vladimir Putin did not tolerate bad news very well and the messenger often suffered as well. When Putin asked for intel on the situation inside Ukraine, he was told that morale was low, loyalty to the government equally weak and the military disorganized and demoralized.

All that was quite untrue, but it was what Putin was looking for and he ordered the Stavka (the military general staff) to plan and carry out an invasion of Ukraine that would take advantage of the intel Putin received. Some Stavka members suspected or realized that the Intel Putin received was overly optimistic, but their job was to do what the boss wanted. They did it quickly and competently and Putin approved the attack plan.

The Russian attack was an expensive disaster, with heavy losses among junior combat officers and even heavier losses for the most modern and effective tanks. There were heavy losses among the troops, but they were easier to replace than those officers. The tank losses were difficult to replace; nearly two years later they still haven’t been replaced and it will take another five to ten years to do that assuming Russia does not lose a lot more tanks in combat. Russia continues to lose tanks and tries to deal with this by bringing hundreds of 50–60-year-old T-62s out of storage, getting them running again and sending them to provide cheaper tanks for the Ukrainians to destroy.

At this point it seems like a good idea to call off the Russian invasion and halt the heavy personnel, armored vehicle, munitions and usage and take care of the Russian people. While most Russians seemed to approve of the invasion, they did so because Putin did it to prevent NATO from doing something bad to Russia. That was never going to happen since NATO was a defensive alliance, founded in 1949, and its objective was to protect Western Europe from Russian aggression. The NATO mandate has not changed, nor have Russian aggressive tendencies. Ukraine realized this and was seeking NATO membership. The Russian invasion was, in part, to keep Ukraine out of NATO. Putin knew that the NATO charter obliged all members to join in defending a member who was attacked. While Ukraine has not yet been able to join NATO, their admission has only been delayed by the war with Russia . Many Russians began to realize this and that did not improve Putin’s declining popularity. The invasion had resulted in heavy economic sanctions for Russia to deal with. To prevent too many more Russians from going into poverty or not having enough to eat, the government spent heavily to keep the cost of living from plunging too far too quickly. This was expensive as was the continued fighting in Ukraine .

To make matters worse, Ukraine has to date received over $100 billion in military and economic aid from NATO countries. They kept Ukraine fighting and doing so while minimizing casualties. There are conflicting reports on how many Russian soldiers have been killed so far. These estimates range between 180,000 Russian dead and 270,000 wounded up t o 300,000 dead so far . Ukraine’s casualties are lower, at 70,000 dead and over 100,000 wounded. It is certain that Russian casualties are far higher and Ukraine’s lower, because Ukraine’s military medical system is so superior to Russia’s, while Russia’s is now far worse than it was during World War Two. That is saying something.

Ukrainian medical care for the wounded is particularly quicker and more effective at returning wounded soldiers to service. Russian soldiers complain that they often get little medical care or none. The results in those wounds often getting worse and sometimes leading to death. Historically this has been the case. Ukraine has switched to the Western methods, which include prompt and effective treatment of wounds. This means more Ukrainian wounded recover quickly and are back in action. One of the many services NATO has provided Ukraine is help with medical care. Ukraine can send some of its wounded to hospitals, sometimes temporary military hospitals, in Poland.

Russian and Ukrainian are closely related languages, and both use the Cyrillic alphabet. Russian soldiers can read Ukrainian newspapers and magazines and vice versa. Russian soldiers know a lot about Ukrainian military medical services and how much better medical care Ukrainian wounded receive. This is one of the many reasons why Russian soldiers in Ukraine have low morale compared to their Ukrainian adversaries.

This low morale, and the continued shortage of junior officers, makes offensive operations risky because they are likely to fail and lower morale even more. Despite the lower morale, Russian troops are still useful when defending but counter attacks are difficult to organize. Russian troops still attack, but only after the enemy had been hit with enough artillery fire to allow Russian troops to advance against much less resistance. The Ukrainians realize this and that is why Ukrainian missiles and artillery are always seeking Russian supply stockpiles or trucks moving supplies to deprive Russian forces of the needed ammunition to sustain an attack. The Ukrainian attacks on Russian supplies also reduced how much food Russian troops receive. Because of all the NATO support, Ukrainian troops are better supplied than Russian forces. This is another reason why the Ukrainians are winning and the Russians losing due to supply issues.

Russia made their situation worse in the last year by trying to carry out attacks using poorly trained and led troops who suffered from low morale and an increasing tendency to fight less effectively. Russia tried to compensate for that by putting their reluctant combat troops to work building combat zone fortifications and working on improving their defensive tactics. That helped improve morale, but not enough. That was because Russian soldiers had another problem, a lack of rotation and leave. Normally, Russian combat units that have seen a lot of action, and taken a lot of casualties, are periodically rotated out of the combat zone to get rest, additional training and, until recently, leave to go visit their families. The leave policy had been changed because too many soldiers were going on leave and not returning. That can be considered “absent without leave” or desertion but in practice the police have a difficult time finding the missing soldiers and the government has been forced to send soldiers to assist the reluctant police in finding the absent soldier and getting him back to his combat unit. This is more difficult than it sounds because most Russians sympathize with the reluctant soldiers.

Ukraine also has problems with troop morale but takes more positive steps to deal with it. NATO nations have a lot of historical experience with these problems and advise the Ukrainians on what works and why. A soldier with combat fatigue, or, as it is now known, PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder), is of little use in combat and often a danger to others as well as himself. There are some useful therapies to reduce the effects of PTSD and enable a soldier to return to combat. Eventually PTSD wins because there is no known way to completely eliminate it.

Ukraine has managed to defeat Russian forces in many ways by paying attention to troop morale, dealing with PTSD and providing better medical care and using tactics that minimize Ukrainian casualties. Many Russian commanders realize this but don’t have resources to emulate the Ukrainians.