September 22, 2024: When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, they caused more problems for themselves than they expected. The invasion was supposed to be over quickly. Ukrainian resistance was more than the Russians expected, and more than they could handle. Russian losses in Ukraine were devastating for Russia. Most of the Russian tank forces were destroyed and some of these tanks were abandoned by their demoralized Russian crews. The Ukrainians kept the abandoned Russian tanks because both sides were using Russian-designed tanks, many of them built in the Ukraine before the Soviet Union collapsed. Ukraine has so far received over a hundred Western tanks, mainly German Leopards and American M1s. These tanks had superior sensors that enabled them to detect Russian tanks at night and destroy them from a safe distance. When the Western tanks attacked in daylight, they suffered some losses, but not nearly as many as the Russians were losing.

China was Russia’s only ally but had to limit its support lest it be hit with economic sanctions for supplying Russia with weapons. To avoid that, China limits its support to items Russia needs though no Chinese weapons are sent. The Chinese provide lots of electronic and other components Russia needs to build its own tanks and other weapons. When Ukrainians examine the debris left by detonated Russian bombs and missiles, they often find Chinese components. Complaints to China are answered with claims that Russia smuggled in those components that were provided by third parties that China has no control over. That sort of thing does occur, but there is no way for the Ukrainians to prove the Chinese are lying. It is no secret that China and Russia still cooperate with each other. Chinese and Russian warships have been seen operating together in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Meanwhile, Russia’s long relationship with India as a major weapons supplier is unraveling. Increased economic sanctions have made it impossible for Russia to pay for weapons using rubles, dollars or Chinese yuan. The Chinese have never been charitable with their arms customers. This is unlike Western suppliers, who will allow purchases on credit and take a lenient attitude toward late payments. The Chinese expect to be paid on time with a currency they can use. Russia can no longer meet those terms and that has disrupted their sales to India, a customer for over 70 years. China doesn’t sell to India because the countries are embroiled in a sometimes violent border dispute with India. China claims substantial Indian territory, including the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh along with smaller territories on border areas high in the Himalayan mountains. So far, the violence has been restricted to battles between Chinese and Indian troops using fists and clubs. There have been a few deaths and lots of injuries. Russia does not openly support India or China. The current reality is that Russia supports China, which still has trade relationships with Russia. India is mad at Russia for not dealing with defective weapons Russia sold them and not being able to accept payment from India because of the sanctions.

China and Russia are another matter. Despite the payment problems, China still supports Russia, at least diplomatically and in terms of joint military exercises. China expects Russia to remember that China did not abandon them during the Ukraine War, even though Russian Chinese trade was disrupted.