Procurement: The War On Grain

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November 7, 2024: Russia is using million dollar Kh-22 air launched cruise missiles to attack Ukrainian and foreign ships carrying grain from Ukrainian ports to customers worldwide. Ukraine exports 70 million tons of grain a year to customers in the Middle East, Africa and South America. Russia and Ukraine account for 30 percent of world wheat exports and similar percentages of other grains.

Russian attacks on cargo ships departing Odessa for foreign ports are risky because the ships must travel through a 60 kilometer corridor of Ukrainian waters before reaching the coasts of NATO nations on the western shore of the Black Sea. Russia will not fire missiles into the coastal waters of NATO nations. Kh-22’s range is 600 kilometers. The missiles are carried by Tu-22 jet and Tu-95 propeller driven aircraft. The Russians have to be careful and avoid Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles, which have already downed several multi-engine Russian aircraft in the Black Sea, but none carrying Kh-22 missiles.

Russian attacks on grain ships and port facilities in Odessa have not seriously disrupted grain exports. It’s costly to repair the damage on land and Russia does not want to seriously damage foreign grain ships because that would anger the shipping companies that also handle Russian grain exports.

Ukraine manufactures some long range drones that can attack the Russian airfields where the Tu-22 and Tu-95 aircraft are based but the Americans, who are supplying far more of these missiles will not allow them to be used against targets, like military airfields, deep inside Russia. The United States fears such attacks with American missiles will anger Russia more than it already is. That’s absurd, but that’s the way it currently is.

 

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