July 21, 2024: Many nations threatened with attack are studying new tactics and weapons developed during the Ukraine war for useful items. One Ukrainian innovation was the use of numerous inexpensive armed USVs (Unmanned Seagoing Vessels) to attack and destroy ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The losses were so great, and Russian defenses against the UAVs so inadequate, that Russia withdrew its remaining warships to secondary bases over a thousand kilometers from Crimea where their main bases were. In this way Ukraine, which did not have a conventional navy, was able to defeat the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

Taiwan sees this Ukrainian tactic as useful in thwarting any Chinese invasion attempt against Taiwan. Sending hundreds or thousands of these USVs at the approaching Chinese fleet might cause such heavy ship losses that the invasion would fail. While this sounded absurd to some Chinese admirals, there was the recent experience where the Ukrainians actually defeated the Russian Black Sea Fleet with such tactics. Why wouldn’t such a tactic work against a Chinese fleet? After all, the Ukrainian designed USVs ride low in the water and are made of materials that are difficult to detect with radar, sonar or aerial surveillance. The inexpensive USVs could be manufactured in large numbers and held in reserve to deal with a Chinese attack. The USVs could be stored in bomb proof coastal shelters to limit losses from Chinese missile attacks. Once the Chinese fleet encounters USVs they might be persuaded to turn around and spare themselves an embarrassing defeat.

The USVs are only useful for coastal operations and most naval battles are found near a coast, not out on the high seas where no land is visible. USVs replace naval mines as a defensive weapon, one that is not a danger to friend and foe alike. It remains to be seen if Taiwan or anyone else in need of adequate defenses against naval attack, will adopt the USVs, despite their success in the Black Sea.