July 12,
2008: With so many major nations
cooperating against terrorism and illegal addictive drugs, more intel agencies
and political leaders are coming to accept that the two scourges are
interlinked, and a global problem.
First, the
extent of the problem. The most widely used drug is marijuana (and it's refined
version, hashish). There are about 170 million users of these products
worldwide. Many live in rural areas where marijuana grows wild and legal
restrictions are not energetically enforced. But in many urban areas, marijuana
is a major source of income for gangsters, and some terrorist groups. Not as
profitable as cocaine and heroin, and harder to smuggle (because of the bulk), but
it is still a major threat because it has such a large market.
More
debilitating drugs like heroin and cocaine are more expensive, more potent and
have less than 20 percent of the market of marijuana and hashish. Cocaine and
heroin are more likely to disable users, including much higher risk of
accidental death. The 30 million cocaine or heroin users (about 60 percent of
them for the easier to use and less debilitating cocaine) are actually dwarfed
by the slightly larger number of addicts for synthetic drugs (everything from
methamphetamine to Ecstasy and especially prescription drugs). But cocaine and
heroin come from farm crops (coca for cocaine, poppies for heroin) that are
very profitable for poor farmers in places like the South American highlands
(coca) or Central Asia (Afghanistan at the moment). In both these places, the
illegal crops account for the majority of the supply for that illegal drug on
the planet. In the case of cocaine, the drug is largely produced by gangsters,
with some help from political outlaws (mostly leftist groups). There is some
terrorism, but it is all local.
The big
danger is the heroin trade, where Islamic terrorists have partnered with tribe
based drug gangs to produce most of the world's heroin. For decades after World
War II, most of the heroin came from
the remote Burma (now Myanmar)-China border area. But both of those nations
eventually cracked down on that business, and it moved to Pakistan for a while,
but was forced, by a violent government reaction, across the border into
Afghanistan.
The Afghan
government is reluctant to shut down the heroin trade, partly because many
senior government officials are being bribed, and partly because it would cause
more tribal warfare (most of the tribes oppose the heroin trade, and only a few
of the Pushtun tribes in the south control most of the heroin production).
Moreover, there is the likelihood that the poppy growing and heroin production
would just move to another Central Asian nation. The Islamic terrorists would
follow. So the problem really is to crush, or otherwise neutralize, the Taliban, al Qaeda and other Islamic radicals
who are sustaining their violence via drug profits.
It is
interesting that the two major illegal drugs are both produced in small
regions, areas that are dominated by outlaw armies and a general absence of law
and order. Illegal empires for illegal drugs, and it's been that way for quite
a while.