December 18, 2024:
Vladimir Putin is something of a professional terrorist. He has discreetly used terrorism throughout his 25 year political career. Putin became the Russian leader in 1999. Before that in the 1990s he staged some terror attacks inside Russia to encourage more popular support for his rule of Russia. News of this tactic only reached the West via a few Russian refugees. That information source dried up as Putin allegedly sent assassins to deal with talkative Russian exiles.
Putin acquired more rumors of dirty tricks after the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia, a Christian state in the otherwise Moslem Caucasus. Russia used terrorist attacks to justify the attacks on Georgia, which was a success. Despite the victory in Georgia, there were unexpected repercussions in Russia. There were protests by Russian voters in a democratic Russia that sent thousands of conscripts into the Caucasus to put down a Chechen uprising. Many conscripts were killed and Russian leaders finally remembered that they lowered their losses in Afghanistan by depending more on commandos and airborne troops, who were all volunteers. Some of those volunteers were conscripts who felt up to the challenge of being a spetsnaz commando or paratrooper, and the Afghans feared these troops. The Chechen War lasted from 2009 to 2017, when Putin ended the conflict by appointing the most powerful Chechen clan to subdue the other Chechen factions and run Chechnya for Russia. That worked, although anti-Russian Chechen factions continue to be a problem. In December 2024 Ukraine managed to damage a Chechen police station with a very long range drone. Ukrainians are angry about the terrorism and looting Chechen forces have carried out in Ukraine.
In 2014 Russian leaders decided to seize Crimea from Ukraine. At the time Russia had a long-term lease on the Crimean port of Sevastopol to serve as a base for their Black Sea Fleet. Several staged terrorist attacks in 2014 helped make this happen. When Russia decided in 2022 to invade Ukraine and annex the country, a contingent of Chechens participated but eventually left. This departure was motivated by growing terror attacks in Chechnya and Chechens fighting in Ukraine for the Ukrainians.
The war in Ukraine continues and the Ukrainians got creative in how they attack deep inside Russia with drones. Ukraine also has operatives inside Russia that stage terror attacks and target locations for Ukrainian drone attacks. There have been several spectacular attacks which destroyed stockpiles of munitions, fuel as well as fuel refineries. These attacks are carried out at night so the fires and explosions can be seen by more Russian civilians. The Russian government claims that Ukraine is all but defeated. These vivid drone attacks remind Russians and their government that terrorism works both ways. Ukrainian attacks inside Russia are increasing the variety of weapons used as well.
Vladimir likes to be the terrorist, not the terrorized. This Ukrainian response was unexpected and unwelcome. So Putin does not have an effective response except promises that he will turn his Ukrainian war into a forever war. His dwindling popular support is dwindling and more Russians are complaining about the high losses in Ukraine and the impact of Western economic sanctions. That form of terrorism is being felt all over Russia. Vladimir Putin is running out of potential solutions and his oligarch and military associates are running out of patience. Without the support of the wealthy business oligarchs and the corrupt generals, Putin cannot rule. For Putin, that is a personally terrorizing prospect.