July 1, 2007:
Al Qaeda
continues to take a beating, but you can ignite a media firestorm just saying
that. One of the most irritating things about the war on terror, is trying to
keep score. Unlike a conventional war, where you can measure territory won and
lost, as well as casualties, the current conflict does not really lend itself
to those measurements. But there are things that can be measured.
Al Qaeda operations continue
to decline, as the number of al Qaeda members, and leaders killed or captured,
goes up. Then there's al Qaeda media
activity. Up until last Fall, 93 percent of al Qaeda Internet announcements
were video. Since then, most of them are just audio, and sounding increasingly
less confident. There is good reason for that lack of confidence. American and
Pakistani attacks (usually with missiles or smart bombs) along the Afghan
border in the last two years have killed an increasing number of foreign
fighters. DNA tests can tell if someone is from the region, or elsewhere in the
world. But that's not what worries al Qaeda, it's the increasing amount of
accurate information the counter-terror forces are getting. No one is talking,
but al Qaeda chatter claims that either the Americans have some wondrous new
bit of technology, or Yankee money has corrupted more al Qaeda members to give
up information. The Taliban is suffering the same kind of casualties, and
coming up with the same paranoid theories.
More people in Pakistan and Afghanistan, some of them innocent, are
being accused of spying, and killed by the Taliban and al Qaeda. Some of those
multi-million dollar rewards for terrorists have been collected. Some openly,
some more discretely. There is some reason to be paranoid.
Al Qaeda is eagerly recruiting
other Islamic terrorist organizations, usually ones that have recently taken a
big beating in their home country, to become part of al Qaeda. That's about the
only growth al Qaeda is experiencing. In Iraq, former Sunni Arab allies of al
Qaeda have openly turned on the organization, and are eagerly hunting them down
and killing them. Al Qaeda is fighting back, now sending death squads after
Sunni Arab tribal chiefs. Does that sound like something a winner would be
doing?
Al Qaeda is having some
success in the Western media, and among Moslems living in Europe. But those
expatriate Moslems are handicapped by many of their brethren who are not
enthusiastic about Islamic terrorism. The police get tips, make arrests, and al
Qaeda losses a few more true believers. Al Qaeda is desperate for another
highly visible attack in the West. Many such operations are apparently being
planned, but by amateurs who can get no help from al Qaeda experts. Most of al
Qaedas traveling experts are dead or in prison. Inspiring amateurs to attempt poorly planned attacks, like the
recent ones in Britain, only discourage recruits. That's because another bunch
of wannabes get sent away for long prison terms. This is a fate worse than
death for Islamic terrorists. There are no 72 virgins in Western prisons,
unless you consider the fact that you may be turned into one.