June 11,2008:
There are several wars going on in
Afghanistan, and that's a big part of the problem. There is the war between
independent minded tribes and provincial governors. That's because central
government was never a popular idea in the region called Afghanistan. Fans of
central government are still a minority, and many of those simply want to get
their hands on more loot for their family and tribe by controlling part of the
government.
Out in the
countryside, there's a war between the Taliban, and everyone else. The Taliban
represent a religious movement, one that doesn't just advocate a particular
belief system, but insists that the Taliban lifestyle be accepted, under pain
of death. This has split families and tribes, as it is a civil war between
modernity, and the past. Islam is involved on both sides, and these two
different interpretations of Islam are deemed worth fighting to the death for,
at least by the Taliban. Many less religious Afghans are willing to just go
along, rather than risk death at the hands of Taliban fanatics. But most Afghans
would rather just try to improve their lives and tend to their families without
the Taliban busting their chops.
Into all
this has come the foreigners (troops and aid workers). The Taliban hate the
foreigners because, obviously, these infidels represent the heretical present,
and an even worse future. The aid workers bring evil ideas and practices (like
education for girls and rights for women), not to mention moral pollution in
the form of music and videos. Afghans who assist modernization must be
threatened and, if they do not change their ways, killed. Now normally, the
foreigners would not care what the locals thought about the past, or the
present, or what was going on in Afghanistan (and Central Asia in general). But
since al Qaeda decided to go international with its religious terrorism, and
chose the Pushtun tribal areas along the Afghan-Pakistani border as their
sanctuary, this woe begotten patch of Central Asia has become a battlefield.
The foreigners have superior weapons, and skilled soldiers that the tribal
warriors cannot defeat one-on-one. So the Taliban are trying to use terror
attacks, and the effect of this on the foreign media, to cause the foreign
troops to be withdrawn. The Taliban also see themselves as on a Mission From
God, as well as Defenders Of Traditional Values, and thus morally superior to
the foreigners (and Afghans who don't agree with the Taliban.)
On a more
practical level, the Taliban are willing to continue their violence for as long
as it takes. The foreign troops, in turn, have done their math and realize that
the Taliban are a minority which can be crushed, if there are enough foreign
troops on the ground to shut down enough Taliban war bands at once. Actually,
the Afghan government, and anti-Taliban tribes, could do it, but that would
take longer. The basic tactic for defeating the Taliban is to put government
troops and police in all the towns and villages where there is a large
pro-Taliban minority (one large enough to effectively bully the majority). In
many towns and villages the Taliban has already been defeated, because there
are not enough Taliban to control the majority, even though these Taliban also
have guns and a Mission From God.
NATO
commanders believe that if they had 10,000 more troops, they could clear out
the centers of Taliban support, at least in Afghanistan, in a few years, and
enable the aid workers to do their magic (build roads and schools, which gets
the economy going and gives people better opportunities than trying to impose a
seventh century lifestyle on everyone.) Alas, NATO isn't getting those 10,000
troops, and there is much argument and name-calling between the NATO members
that send troops to fight, and those (especially Germany) that send troops to
just be there, and stay out of trouble.
There's
another war, just across the border in Pakistan. This one is similar to the tribal
and Taliban wars in Afghanistan, except that the Pakistani government has
control over most of the Pakistani population, and most of the real estate. But
the Pakistani government is not willing to get involved with tribal rivalries
(which is what the Taliban is on the Pakistani side of the border). The
Pakistanis are currently trying to work out a deal with the local Taliban.
Basic terms are that the Taliban will expel foreign terrorists and not make
terror attacks in the rest of Pakistan. In return, the government will withdraw
its troops and allow the Taliban to do what they wish (as long as Pakistani
government officials were not molested.) For centuries, this was how one dealt
with the Pushtun tribes. Find the strongest tribe, and bribe them to keep the
violence in the tribal areas.
The
Pakistanis also don't care if the Taliban continue to send volunteers across the
border to aid their beleaguered fellow Taliban in Afghanistan. This, obviously,
is a major source of dispute between the Afghan and Pakistani governments, as
well as between the U.S. and NATO, and the Pakistani government. Meanwhile, U.S.
armed UAVs, and CIA agents Special Forces troops, are going after terrorist
leaders in Pakistan, and the Pakistani government is generally ignoring this
effort. The CIA and Special Forces operators have established an informant
network in the Pakistani tribal areas. That region contains lots of people
willing to be informants, either because of hatred of the Taliban, and/or
because of the big payday for working as an American spy. When terrorists are
located, a UAV rolls in and fires a missile or two. There have been five of
these attacks so far this year, leaving dozens of Taliban and al Qaeda members
dead.
NATO and
the Americans continue to put lots of diplomatic and economic pressure on
Pakistan to go after their Taliban. So far, this effort is deadlocked. So is
the war against the Taliban, mainly because so many are seeking an easy way out.
Some NATO commanders believe that, after five or ten years of the current kind
of operations, the Taliban will be wiped out, and the Afghans can get back to
their traditional pursuits (tribal feuds and massive corruption among
government officials at the provincial and national level.)