May 20, 2008:
Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party
(AKP)apparently believes the Constitutional Court will ban it sometime in the
coming months. This amounts to toppling the Turkish government by judicial
decision-so it is very big news. Why will it be banned? For supporting "Islamist
policies." Turkey's secular republic is founded on Kemalist principles (named
after Kemal Ataturk, Turkey's 20th century revolutionary leader). The Kemalists
are deeply suspicious of "political Islam" - and with good historical reason.
The Constitutional Court has the responsibility of defending "secularist
principles" in Turkey. The case that may lead to banning the AKP involves the
AKP's decision to allow Muslim women to wear headscarfs in Turkish colleges.
Turkish secularists see the headscarf as a symbol of the political Islamists
goal (in the secularists' view) of returning Turkey to Islamic law. To some the
headscarf is a symbol of women being second-class citizens. Ataturk made the
inclusion of Turkish women in politics one of his key reformist goals. The AKP
is a very moderate Muslim party and its leader, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, is regarded as a reliable ally of western European countries and the
US. The AKP favors Turkish membership in the European Union. The AKP does have
two factions, a conservative (more Islamist) faction and a "reformist" (less
Islamist) faction. Many members of the AKP once belonged to the Welfare (Refah)
Party. The court banned the Welfare Party in 1998 - for "anti-secular
activities."
May 16,
2008: The EU said that its support group would not be able to take over
security and security-advisory operations from the United Nations mission in
Kosovo (UNMIK) in late June. The EU had planned to take over the mission by
mid-2008..
May 12,
2008: Gunshots were fired at Macedonian opposition leader Ali Ahmeti as he
toured predominantly ethnic Albanian villages in western Macedonia. Ahmeti is
an ethnic Albanian. Ahmeti's Democratic Union for Integration Party (DUIP) has
been involved in a bitter political struggle with the more radical Democratic
Party of Albanians (DPA).
May 11.
2008: A coalition of Serbian parties (led by the moderate-liberal Democratic
Party) that favor integration with Western Europe won Serbia's key
parliamentary elections. It may take a few weeks to sort out the exact
arrangements in Serbia's 250-seat parliament. The "pro-Western" parties,
however, will have to ally with Serbia's various ethnic minority parties to
secure a majority in parliament. There is also the distant possibility that no
government will be formed and new elections must be called. Under any
circumstances, the ultra-nationalist
Serbian Radical Party lost, which is why Serb Radical leaders are hoping that
new elections will have to be called or that they can somehow cobble together a
"nationalist" coalition government in which they participate. A possible
candidate for a Radical partner would be the conservative Democratic Party of
Serbia (DSS). Many European commentators are arguing that since the Radicals
lost, "Russia lost" the Serbian election meaning Russia will have less
influence on a pro-Western Serb government. That is likely true. Another
outcome: the begrudging acceptance of an independent Kosovo.
April 30,
2008: Several relatives of Muslim survivors of the 1995 Srebrenica slaughter in
Bosnia attacked the EU for signing a "pre-membership agreement" with Serbia.
The Bosniaks argue that Serbia has not yet accepted responsibility for the war
in Bosnia and the murder of tens of thousands of Bosnian Muslims. The
"pre-membership agreement" is something of a carrot for Serbian democrats, who
face anti-Western ultranationalists in the upcoming May 11 national elections.
The idea is that a promise of eventual EU membership will attract swing voters.
April 22,
2008: The initial promise of talks between the government of Moldova and
leaders of Transdniestria now appear to have been too optimistic. Relations
between Moldova and Russia, however, have improved, which may bode well for an
eventual political settlement. Moldova is offering Transdniestria "the broadest
possible autonomy" within a Moldovan state.