July 15, 2024: Félix Tshisekedi, the President since 2019, easily won the presidential and National Assembly (legislature) elections at the end of 2023. Tshisekedi won because he had made considerable efforts to implement economic improvements that raised the standard of living for many Congolese. He was less successful in dealing with the growing threat from the M23 militia in eastern Congo, where the mining operations are.

Just defeating Kabila in an election was a remarkable feat because the former president had enriched himself with corrupt dealings. The worst corruption was in eastern Congo (Ituri, North and South Kivu provinces) and southern Congo (Katanga province). These provinces are where foreign firms mine and export valuable minerals. The Congo government should have prospered from payments from these foreign operations. Unfortunately, many of these foreigners, especially the Chinese, found it easier and cheaper to bribe key local officials and then do as they pleased. These corruption payments also enriched many Kabila allies in parliament. Once in office Tshisekedi took on Kabila and his powerful parliamentary coalition. Tshisekedi found allies in the UN and among donor countries and blocked Kabila’s efforts to hide his corrupt activities while president. By 2021 the mining contracts Kabila agreed to with China were being audited. The audits found evidence of extensive wrongdoing by Kabila and China. China lost those contracts, so Kabila is very much on the defensive, as are his cronies in parliament and the courts. Despite these setbacks and accusations that he embezzled $139 million, the investigation continues into 2024. Tshisekedi wants to do this by the book so that an ample quantity of relevant documents and sworn testimony is collected. Everyone knows Kabila is guilty, but doing something about it takes a lot of time and effort. Meanwhile Kabila and his family live on a large farm outside the capital of Kinshasa. The investigation includes informing foreign nations that Kabila might flee to if he was about to be arrested and prosecuted. The potential sanctuary states are regularly receiving regular updates on the investigation. This will make it difficult, if not impossible, to find a suitable sanctuary. Unsuitable sanctuaries like Cuba and a few other outlaw states are still available for a price.

Tshisekedi originally used diplomatic and local opposition in 2019 to persuade President Kabila to stop trying to become a president-for-life. Kabila tried to revive the one-party dictatorship based on corruption and exploiting ethnic divisions. Kabila and father, who was president from 1997 until his assassination in 2001, had grown up opposing that sort of thing but here it was again. Kabila was supposed to leave office after the 2016 elections selected a new president. He could not run again and was unable to get the constitution changed. He was forced to allow elections at the end of 2018 but was able to rig the vote to get someone willing to cooperate with the corrupt system Kabila wanted to keep going. Félix Tshisekedi, the new president, would presumably benefit if he went along. Tshisekedi instead took on Kabila and his powerful parliamentary coalition. Tshisekedi found allies in the UN and among donor countries and blocked Kabila’s efforts to hide his corrupt activities while president.

China is losing those contracts, so Kabila is very much on the defensive, as are his cronies in parliament and the courts. The misdeeds of Kabila were the reason Congo was facing widespread chaos and civil war that is made worse by the ongoing ethnic divisions. Solutions have been sought since the 1960s and in 2013 the UN tried something novel, a special combat brigade of peacemakers - the Force Intervention Brigade. This brigade was given a license to kill, and kill as often as needed, to eliminate the last few rogue militias operating in the east. This solved many of the peacekeeping problems there, at least temporarily. Despite that, multiple tribal and political militias, plus an increasing number of bandits, continue to roam the eastern border area, perpetuating the bloodiest and least reported war of the 21st century with over six million dead. There is similar but less intense unrest in other parts of the country, especially the separatist minded southwest. The Congolese government discovered that it had to cope with the continuing corruption and lack of order in the east and southwest. The reason was always money, the millions of dollars available each year to whoever has gunmen controlling the mines that extract valuable ores and allow the stuff out of the country. Congo is finally emerging from this deadly chaos. Elsewhere in Central Africa the Burundi civil war threatens to reignite because the current president is trying to defy the constitution and become president-for-life. In the Central African Republic years of chaos, following the overthrow of a corrupt and incompetent dictator, evolved into another Moslem versus Christian and non-Moslems in general conflict. Russian mercenaries are now involved because they get paid well and on time.

In eastern Congo (North Kivu province) thousands of people have been driven from their homes because of rebel and Islamic terrorist violence. Most of the violence has been caused by the ADF (Allied Democratic Forces). This is a Ugandan rebel organization with strong connections to Moslem tribes in northern Uganda. In fact, since 2014 it has been regarded as an Islamist group. Peacekeepers launched several operations in 2014 against ADF bases in Congo. The 2014 operations weakened the ADF but did not eliminate it. After the massive 2014 anti-ADF operation, the ADF was found to still have around 500 fighters in Congo. Its bases near the Ugandan border could have supported up to 2,000 fighters. Interrogators spoke with several captured ADF fighters who reported that the ADF had a very active recruitment network in east Africa. The ADF made money smuggling of illegal timber in the form of logs. This is a major source of income because most of it was from rare and exotic trees. The ADF also enforced its own interpretation of Islamic or sharia law. ADF fighters enslave Congolese women and children who are not Moslem. If someone was caught trying to escape from an ADF camp, they faced death by beheading or crucifixion. Such practices were popular among ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) groups in Syria, Iraq and Nigeria but there is no evidence that ADF considers itself part of ISIL. ADF justifies its use of slavery and brutal forms of execution by claiming to be defending Islam from Christians. Over 90 percent of Congolese are Christian.

In southeastern Congo (Lualaba province) the state-owned cobalt monopoly, Entreprise Generale du Cobalt (EGC), had been paying artisanal, or informal, cobalt miners a minimum price of $30,000 a ton for cobalt that was selling for $50,000 a ton. The government contended that unregulated mineral brokers paid artisanal miners much less than $30,000 a ton. For a long time these independent miners have produced about ten percent of Congo’s Cobalt.

Most of those mineral brokers work with or for Chinese companies which control an estimated 70 percent of Congo’s mineral deposits and mining industry. The Chinese state-owned CNMC (China Nonferrous Metal Mining Company Ltd.) owns huge cobalt and copper reserves in Congo. CNMC is actually a group, with four very large subsidiary corporations. The MMG (Mineral and Mining Group), another Chinese organization, has stakes in several Congolese mines. In Lualaba province there is CMOC (China Molybdenum Company) that acquired, in 2021, a 95 percent interest in Congo’s huge Kisanfu copper and cobalt deposits. CMOC bought the interest from an American company, Freeport-McMoran, and reportedly paid around $550 million. Since 2012 Chinese companies have invested over $10 billion in Congolese mineral assets. That’s the common open-source figure but some analysts contend the figure is somewhere over $12 billion. Given the high levels of corruption in Congo and the opacity of many Chinese business operations (corruption in China), the appropriate answer is who knows, but it’s a lot. Chinese production of electric vehicles is a major reason China invests in Congolese minerals. Congo is the world’s biggest cobalt producer, each year producing a growing majority of the world’s total cobalt. In 2020 Congo produced about 100,000 tons of cobalt, which was 71 percent of the world total.

By 2021 industry sources estimated that Chinese companies controlled around 40 percent of Congo’s cobalt mining capacity. This means deposits and means of extraction. Cobalt is critical as a stabilizer in the production of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries. It takes about 10 kg of cobalt to manufacture an electric car battery. Communist China is committed to producing electric vehicles (EVs) of all types.

In 2024 Congolese and Ugandan soldiers continue to fight CODECO (Cooperation for the Development of Congo) rebels. CODECO rebels are based in Ituri province (eastern Congo) but the fighting spills into northwest Uganda (Uganda’s West Nile province). The CODECO rebels are armed with guns, bows and arrows and machetes.

Meanwhile, in North Kivu province the Congolese Army continues to confront March 23 Movement (M23) rebels. The ceasefire negotiated in March 2023 M23 broke down in late 2023. Fighting intensified in early 2024. By May 2024 fighting with M23 had displaced an estimated 1.7 million people. In June 2024 an M23 unit threatened to attack Goma, the capital of North Kivu province. Most of the North Kivu combat between government forces and M23 occurs near or along the Congo-Rwanda border (and Goma is on the border). Congo claims the Rwandan government backs M23 and has threatened to attack Rwanda. Rwanda denies the charge. However, in June 2024 UN observers estimated up to 3,000 Rwandan Army soldiers were deployed in North Kivu. Tribal loyalties play a major role in this conflict. Rwandan Tutsis dominate Rwanda’s government. M23 is dominated by ethnic Tutsis from eastern Congo. Congolese Tutsis are often referred to as Banyamulenge Tutsis. The term originally referred to ethnic Tutsis from a specific area in South Kivu province but has come to mean any ethnic Tutsis who live in Congo.