August 9, 2007:
In Iraq, the U.S. surge offensive has turned
to Iranian supported terror groups, and dozens of terrorists have been killed
or captured in the last week, along with documents and Iranian made weapons. In
addition, the Iraqi government is becoming increasingly alarmed at what appears
to be an Iranian backed assassination campaign that is picking off moderate
Shia religious leaders, and their aides. This is a tactic reminiscent of Saddam
Hussein, and in character for Iranian religious fanatics. Iran denies such
support for this dirty business, but there it is. The Iranian government can
make these denials with a straight face because of the way factions control
different parts of the government. The Islamic radicals, in particular, are
left alone as they pursue all manner of special projects. Fomenting terrorism
and rebellion in foreign countries is one Islamic radical activity the Iranian
government would rather not officially know about.
Another growing problem is the
growing disparity between the military power of Iran and its Arab rivals on the
other side of the Persian (or Arabian, depending on who you ask) Gulf. Recently
the U.S. announced it would sell two billion dollars worth of new weapons a
year to Saudi Arabia, for the next decade. Add to that a billion or so dollars
worth of new weapons bought by other Arab Gulf states, and you have a growing
disparity in weapons quality. For the last two decades, Iran was forced to
smuggle in a few hundred million dollars worth of weapons and spare parts a
year. Various embargos, in response to Iran's support for Islamic terrorism,
has reduced the Iranian armed forces to a sorry state. Iranian propaganda (mostly
about a flourishing, but largely ramshackle, domestic arms industry)
notwithstanding, the Iranian armed forces are equipped with elderly, poorly
maintained weapons, used by troops who don't get much opportunity to train with
them. That's because of the fuel shortage, and the inept way the clerical
dictatorship mismanages the economy.
Iran does have a military edge
in that they are the traditional regional badasses. Iranian warriors have been
kicking serious local butt for thousands of years. That means something. But
Arabs were encouraged at how Iraq held off the Iranians for several years in
the 1980s, and forced the Iranians to accept a ceasefire. In Arab eyes, the
Iranians are dangerous, but not invincible. However, if Iran gets nuclear
weapons, a certain degree of invincibility comes along with that.
The war against younger
Iranians continues, with a spectacular raid, by the religious police, on a rock
concert held in the suburbs of the capital. Over 200 people were arrested. In
lesser actions, the religious police continue to round up young men and women
who are not acting, or appearing, as good young Moslems should. Young Iranians
complain about this treatment, but are not yet moved to do anything about it.
Thus the government shows how it prefers to be feared, if it cannot be
respected.
Meanwhile, there is confusion
in the east. Iran wants cooperation from Afghanistan, to help stop drug
smuggling by Afghan gangs. Iran has several million opium and heroin addicts,
and this problem is getting worse. The drugs are coming from Afghanistan. One
anti-drug tactic involved about twenty
percent of the million illegal Afghan migrants in Iran getting expelled
recently, much to the displeasure of the Afghan government. But the Iranian
government has cooperated by carrying out economic development projects in
western Afghanistan. On the surface, Iranian and Afghan officials get along and
cooperate along the border. Unofficially, radical factions in the Iranian
government support terrorism inside Afghanistan.