January10, 2007:
Sunni Arab countries (everyone in the region but Iraq and Iran) are
in an uproar over what is seen as an Iranian takeover of Iraq. The takeover
actually occurred centuries ago, when the population became majority Shia Arab.
But the Turkish empire delayed the inevitable, by submerging the Shia Arab
majority in Basra province, in a Sunni sea called the Ottoman Empire. That
empire disappeared in 1918, replaced by many new countries, or at least ones
that had not been independent for hundreds of years. Britain created Iraq
out of the majority Shia (and former Ottoman) province of Basra, the
mixed, but largely Sunni, province of Baghdad, and the largely Kurd province of
Mosul in the north. Sunni Arabs were only about twenty percent of the whole,
but they were the wealthiest and best educated. The Sunni Arabs had run things
for the Turks, had connections, and an attitude of superiority. The Sunni Arabs
took over. The Sunni Arabs still have the education, connections and attitude.
What they don't have is power, and some of them are desperate to get that
back.
Media
throughout the Sunni Arab world is getting more strident about the Iranian
threat. Ancient terms for the Iranians are being revived, and past defeats at
the hands of the Iranians are recounted in gory detail. The message is clear,
the Shia Arab majority in Iraq cannot be allowed to control the country. For
then, the Shia would control nearly 40 percent of the oil and gas in the
Persian Gulf (which contains half the oil and gas in the world). The Sunni Arab
nightmare has always been that the Iranians would come and take their oil. With
Shia Arabs controlling Iraq, and allied with Shia Iran, that nightmare gets too
close for comfort. For decades, the Sunni Arab states of the region tolerated
Saddam Husseins bad behavior because Saddam had proved (during his 1980s war
with Iran) that he could fight the Iranians and not lose (the war ended with a
ceasefire, the Iranians are still demanding reparations.) The usual outcome of
a war between Iranians and Arabs, is an Iranian victory. So Saddam was The Man,
but now Saddam is gone, and the Sunni Arabs are not sure the United States can
control this Shia monster it has created in Iraq.
The
new security plan, backed up by an additional 20,000 U.S. troops, aims to take
down the Sunni and Shia militias. These organizations were left in place for
the last three years, because they provided some security. But in the last
year, the militias have become the source of most insecurity, as Shia death
squads killed Sunnis in a bloody vendetta for decades of oppression. The Sunni
Arab terrorists killed Shia to try and scare them into allowing Sunni Arabs to
run the country again. Over the past two years, U.S. and Iraqi government
intelligence agencies have compiled extensive data on the militias, and where
they hang out. The crackdown would not expect to destroy armed Sunni and Shia
partisans, but their organizations would be smashed, and their numbers greatly
diminished. This sort of thing happens in the U.S. when police go after
organized crime, or in the Middle East when the secret police smash a rebel
movement. The new plan involves members of the 300,000 strong Iraqi security
forces operating by "American rules." Iraqi commanders would be
given areas to pacify, and then left to do it, and be responsible for it.
Civilians wandering the streets openly carrying gun would no longer be
tolerated. Those who refused to give up their weapons would be arrested, those
who resisted would be killed. A lot of the "usual suspects" will be
rounded up. Criminal gangs will have a chance to switch sides. Most of the
gangsters have partnered with terrorists or militias. If they are willing to
flip on their political buddies, the government will cut them some slack,
otherwise, business-as-usual will be interrupted for a while, perhaps a long
while. The gangsters tend to vote their wallets, so the police are expecting to
see the political militias and terrorists quickly lose valuable allies.
The
Sunni Arabs are not waiting, with radio and print calls to arms circulating in
Sunni neighborhoods recently. Armed Sunni Arabs are urged to go to Baghdad, to
fight the decisive battle to keep Baghdad Sunni. That battle has already been
lost, but the noise level on the Sunni side has reached epic levels because the
Shia death squads are now invading solidly Sunni neighborhoods. There are no
more safe havens for Sunnis in Baghdad. The men of Anbar (the Sunni heartland
west of Baghdad) are being called in to save Baghdad. That has led to some
spectacular street battles in the last few days. But all of these have ended
with a lot of dead Sunnis. The Battle of Baghdad has been lost, but the
fighting will go on for a while. The Sunni Arabs are dead-men-walking, and more
of them will have to be put in the ground before the majority admit they are
beat.
What
the United States is trying to avoid is a massacre of the Sunni Arabs. The new
military operation will disarm many of the Sunni Arabs who guard Sunni Arab
neighborhoods. Unless the Shia militias, and their death squads are also
crippled, the Shia will kill and terrorize Sunni Arabs on a large scale. The
mass media loves that sort of thing, but Western politicians back home don't. No
one wants another Bosnia or Rwanda.
About
half the Sunni Arabs of Iraq have been driven from their homes so far. Some 60
percent of those have left the country, while the others have taken refuge in
areas where Sunni Arabs are the majority. There are far fewer "mixed"
(Sunni and Shia) neighborhoods in Iraq today, and there will be a lot fewer in
the future. In 2006 alone, about ten percent of the Sunni Arab population was
driven from their homes, and either left the country or settled elsewhere in
Iraq.
Each
month, 50-100,000 Iraqis, mostly Sunni Arabs, leave the country. There are
nearly a million Iraqi refugees in Syria, about 700,000 in Jordan, nearly
100,000 in Egypt, about 40,000 in Lebanon, and about 20,000 in Turkey. Over a
hundred thousand have fled further still, to Europe and the Americas. The
U.S. is trying to keep Sunni Arab refugees out, as it is believed many of them
would be inclined to support Sunni Arab terrorist groups like al Qaeda, and
seek revenge against the United States.