February20, 2007:
The latest North Korean disarmament deal is similar to the one in
1994, the one that North Korea violated the terms of, while accepting most of
the goodies. But this time it's different. The verification routines for the
new deal are stricter, and the U.S. has partners (China, Japan, South Korea and
Russia). The main component of the bribe (worth up to half a billion dollars)
is oil, to be delivered by South Korea. It's quite likely North Korea will try
to cheat on this deal, as it has done in the past. The North Korean police
state is still in business, still broke, and still on the prowl for handouts
and bribes.
February
19, 2007: North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has ordered all Japanese made cars in
the country seized. Kim is angry with Japan, which refuses to give North Korea
any more freebies until the North Koreans come clean on all the Japanese it
kidnapped over the last few decades. The kidnapped Japanese issue is big in
Japan, and Japanese politicians cannot ignore it.
February
18, 2007: North Korea has a measles epidemic on its hands, and is calling for
international help to stop it. North Korea had announced, in 1992, that is had
eliminated measles within its borders. That may have been the case, and the
disease may have been brought back by a diplomat, or other traveler. When the
measles outbreak began last November, health workers did not recognize it at
first, and it has since spread to over a third of the country. Thousands of
people have been infected, and an unknown number have died. The North Korean
health system is mainly a sham, with lots of "trained medical
personnel," but little in the way of equipment or medicine.
February
1 7, 2007: Based on past performance, much of the new aid going to North
Korea is expected to go to the military, and the few thousand families that
control the country. The North Korean armed forces have been starved of new
equipment, spare parts and fuel for some two decades now. Training,
discipline and loyalty have all declined. The secret police have to spend more
and more of their time keeping an eye on the army. The armed forces needs help,
fast, before it falls apart.
February
16, 2007: As expected, North Korea is now delivering the fine print to its
rather vague disarmament deal. First, it wants a light water nuclear reactor
(one that will not produce bomb fuel) to replace the one it is shutting down,
and the disarmament deal is not permanent. That last point was expected. North
Korean has the knowledge, and any missiles or nuclear bombs that are
dismantled, can quickly be rebuilt.
February
15, 2007: North Korea is eager to get food and fertilizer aid from the south
restored. The aid was suspended last July because of North Korean missile and
nuclear tests. The northerners put on a brave face to all this, but the loss of
that aid, and much else besides (because of the weapons tests) is causing
suffering and death up north.
February
13, 2007: North Korea agreed to shut down its nuclear reactor, and eventually,
well, maybe, dismantle its nuclear weapons. This would be done in return
for of 7.3 million barrels (one million tons) of oil. Five percent of the
oil will be delivered as soon as the nations main nuclear reactor (used to
create bomb material) is shut down. This is to happen within sixty days and
verified by international inspectors. The rest of the oil, plus unspecified
amounts of electricity and food aid, will be delivered as other components of
North Korea's nuclear weapons program is dismantled. The details on this are
vague, but the bribe is real, and worth up to half a billion dollars. South
Korea, the U.S., China, Japan and Russia are sharing the cost.