No one is sure what the status of North Korea's nuclear weapons program is. Getting spies inside that program has, apparently, been very difficult and, it appears, impossible so far. Some defectors, who worked in or around the nuclear and missile programs, have spoken openly about those programs, and made it clear that a lot of the past reporting on these programs was mainly speculation. The intelligence agencies of many nations are speculating. Just because you have no one on the inside, does not mean intelligence agencies have nothing to say. Intelligence agencies are supposed to have inside information. If hard facts are not available, convincing speculation will do.