May 5, 2024: The Iranian government has, since the 1980s, been a Shia Islamic theocracy. That means a Supreme Leader, assisted by a Guardian Council, makes the major decisions about domestic and foreign policy, and the parliament only decides those things the Supreme Leader permits. The council consists of senior Shia Islam religious leaders, called Ayatollahs, and six civilian judges or lawyers. The six Ayatollahs are appointed by the Supreme Leader while the six lawyers and judges are appointed by the chief judge of Iran. All twelve are appointed to The Council of Experts. The Council members are elected officials although the candidates seeking to be Council members must be approved by the Supreme Leader. This means the government isn’t a true democracy and the real power is the Supreme Leader supported by the Guardian Council and the Council of Experts. The government is protected by the 250,000 men of the paramilitary IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps). The IRGC exists to protect the Supreme Leader and his advisors from internal and external threats. One part of the IRGC is the Quds Force, which specializes in supporting foreign armed groups, usually Shia but sometimes Sunnis, that support Iranian foreign policy. The Quds is responsible for supporting, and sometimes creating pro-Iran militias in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The religious dictatorship of Iran has been a source of violence throughout the region since the 1980s.

In 2024 the seemingly formidable IRGC appeared to be a major threat. This illusion was demolished when Iran, or at least the IRGC, decided to launch a major attack on Israel using weapons launched from Iran. This attack involved over 400 missiles and slower armed UAVs (Unmanned aerial Vehicles). This attack was a major failure, with Israeli air defenses and BMD (Ballistic Missile Defense) systems taking care of the threat. Neighboring Jordan shot down many of the UAVs passing over Jordan to reach Israel. The Israelis were also aided by Americans and British warplanes operating from airbases in the region, as well as two Americans warships off the Israeli coast. Only minor damage was done to an Israeli air base.

Five days later Israel launched several attacks on Iran that were not intercepted. To make interception even less likely in the future, the Israeli attacks concentrated on Iranian air defense, including surveillance and fire control radars as well as the missile launchers themselves. The Israelis used low-altitude UAVs to avoid Iranian radar and then destroy the radars. Israeli missiles finished off the now blinded Iranian air defense system. All this was a convincing demonstration of how effective the Israeli military was compared to their Iranian counterparts.

Iranian political and military leaders downplayed the extent of damage the Israelis had inflicted. News of what really happened spread quickly throughout Iran, where Iranian civilians were pleased with the failure of the attacks on Israel and delighted that the Israeli counterattack had demonstrated the uselessness of Iranian air defenses. The Iranian religious dictatorship has been increasingly unpopular with most Iranians. Despite all the oil wealth Iran produced, little of the oil income benefits the average Iranian. This makes it easier for foreign governments, including Israel and the United States, to find and hire Iranian spies or those willing to do something that will destroy assets that are valuable to the government. Or simply make the Iranian government look bad. These Iranian agents often have to be helped to flee Iran, often with their families, carrying out a particularly daring and destructive mission. This included the 2020 explosion in the underground Natanz nuclear material enrichment facility. In 2021 there was an internet based attack on Natanz that was created by Israel and the United States with some help from Iranian agents.

Sometimes Iranians are willing to voice their hatred of their government openly, as happened on April 8th this year in a Tehran sports stadium. Stadium officials used the public address system to ask the thousands of spectators to observe a minute of silence in honor of seven IRGC officers, including a general, who were killed by a recent Israeli airstrike in Syria (the one which the Iranian government then attacked Israel for). Instead of silence, many spectators used air horns and other noise makers as well as shouting to show their hostility toward the Iranian government. Many Iranians are still angry about the more than 700 Iranian protestors killed by the IRGC because of a 2022 incident where Iranian religious police seized a Kurdish girl, who they accused of not having her hair covered. The girl was beaten to death while in police custody and that led to nationwide anti-government protests and faded by early 2023, mainly because the IRGC used lethal force against demonstrators, killing at least 700, wounding over a thousand and jailing even more. Iran's efforts to use lethal force and mass arrests to deal with the anti-government protests just makes the popular hatred of the government more lasting and intense.