November 26, 2024: Russia is running out of soldiers for its war in Ukraine. Now in its third year, the war has cost Russia at least 600,000 dead and wounded soldiers. The economy went from rebuilding in 2021 to contraction and substantial reorganization by 2024. These heavy military and economic losses can no longer be ignored or misrepresented inside Russia. Over a million Russian men have served in Ukraine and more than half have been killed and wounded. By the end of 2022 Putin outlawed any reporting of Russian casualties in Ukraine. For most Russians the high casualty rate in Ukraine was no secret. Too many Russians knew men who had gone to Ukraine and either came back in a coffin or disappeared. About two percent of military age Russian men have been in Ukraine, usually only 200,000 at a time.

By late 2023 most Russians realized that service in Ukraine was guaranteed to get most men killed or wounded. Enough came back to reveal what was actually happening there. While Putin controlled the mass media, he did not control the internet and that is where Russians could get timely and accurate information about what was happening in Ukraine. Putin tried to keep that information from appearing on the Russian internet. He had some success but such censorship was a sign that the situation was bad in Ukraine for Russians. Soon Russian hackers had found ways to evade the government censorship and let the truth in.

From the beginning Russian soldiers were ordered not to bring their cell phones to Ukraine. Many did so anyway and were able to obtain sim chips that provided access to the international internet. There were many Russian language news services available outside Russia providing a more accurate account of what was happening in Ukraine. Russian soldiers with cell phones told friends and family back home what was actually happening. Putin found that his draconian censorship could not be enforced without putting millions of Russians in prison. A few prosecutions were carried out. It was not enough to stop Russians from getting accurate news of the mess in Ukraine.

The situation became desperate after a Ukrainian invasion of Russia in August 2024. The invasion force is still there because Russia could not gather enough troops to force them out. In a desperate move, Russia hired 12,000 North Korean soldiers. Since the 1990s Russia has hired North Korea workers to replace Russians who could no longer be coerced by the defunct Soviet Union to live and work in the Russian Far East. North Korea needed the money and had hungry workers available. The government kept most of the workers’ pay but left them enough to encourage more North Korean workers to volunteer for jobs in Russia. The North Korean workers were accompanied by secret police guards to make sure none of the workers tried to escape control of the North Korean dictatorship.

Russian losses were so heavy in Ukraine because replacement troops sent in were given little training and were poorly equipped. Some were seen wearing World War II style steel helmets that Russia had kept in storage just in case of another military disaster. That was what Ukraine turned out to be for Russia, who had to send some 1950s era T-55 tanks into Ukraine to face Ukrainian Leopard 2 tanks and M-1s supplied by Germany and the United States.

The Russian situation in Ukraine is desperate and Russian plans to replace its losses and rebuild its military are equally desperate. First, they have to stall the Ukrainians and their massive amounts of NATO weapons and munitions. That was done with anti-tank mines and lots of trenches and other tank obstacles. Russian combat engineers are first rate and use specialized equipment to quickly dig trenches and build fortifications. The front line is a thousand kilometers long and not all of it is fortified. The areas covered by only a few troops and artillery are now patrolled 24/7 by drones. If a surprise attack was attempted, both sides have large supplies of drones that could quickly intervene.

Russia won’t admit it, but they are losing in Ukraine and the Ukrainians are attacking and regaining more ground. Russia still launches offensives but only takes heavy losses with little to show for it. Currently the Russians are trying to assemble enough troops to drive the Ukrainian forces out of Kursk province. The Ukrainians have been there since August. So far Russian efforts have recovered about 40 percent of the Ukrainian occupied territory. The Russian offensive is stalled because of a lack of troops. The North Korean are supposed to help with that but so far, the Russian counteroffensive in Kursk is not making much progress.

The Ukrainian invasion was embarrassing for Russian president Vladimir Putin. This is the first invasion of Russia since the Germans invaded in 1941. Back then, Russia lost 27 million soldiers and civilians defending Russia and driving the Germans out and advancing on Germany, Back then Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union and Ukrainian soldiers were among the most effective in the Russian Red Army. The Ukrainians are still tough fighters but now they are fighting Russians and winning. Many Russians disapprove of the Ukraine War because Russian troops are not defending Russia but fighting to expand Russia. This is what Putin wants and a growing number of Russians, including Putin’s economic oligarch allies believe the cost is too high and victory is unachievable. During World War II it was substantial American military aid that enabled the Soviets to defeat the Germans. Now that aid is going to Ukrainians fighting a Russian invasion. This is not World War II and Russia is not facing a powerful foreign invader. Instead Russia has violated the post-World War II European peace that lasted 77 years until Russia invaded Ukraine. Now most NATO nations are rearming by expanding and upgrading their armed forces. Russia will not only lose in Ukraine, but also face a much stronger NATO that is heavily armed and determined to maintain economic sanctions on Russia until Russia adopts a less threatening foreign police. That includes getting out of Ukraine.