September 30, 2024: The South American nation of Columbia is dealing with some epic failures. First on the list is the 2016 peace agreement with FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) that was supposed to end a half century of violence. There was less violence in some areas, but many of the pardoned FARC members moved their operations and continued their criminal activities in more remote areas. Soon there was more FARC violence than before although it was now happening in rural areas that had previously been peaceful.

In 2017 FARC demobilized, as agreed. The demobilization did not bring peace because the demobilized FARC members then formed nearly three dozen new gangs that engaged in a variety of criminal activities including robbery, drug dealing, kidnapping for ransom and multiple other forms of violent mischief. These crimes are rarely punished because the gangs either bribe, intimidate or murder judges presiding over these cases.

The mayhem is enhanced by thousands of landmines still present in some areas. Police and soldiers in rural areas often engage in illegal activities rather than trying to prevent them. Corruption among long enforcement personnel is the norm, especially in rural areas where it’s easier for security personnel to conceal what they are up to. This is especially true when the international drug cartels are involved. The cartels regularly offer security personnel a choice; take the bribe money or get killed for opposing the gangs.

Then there are the problems caused by nearly three million refugees from neighboring Venezuela. Columbia offered them amnesty and refuge, which most of the Venezuelans accepted. Some of the Venezuelans moved on to Europe or the United States for better opportunities. The Americans asked the Colombians to block the movement of Colombians and Venezuelans to the United States and paid Colombia a substantial sum to make it happen. Some migration was blocked, but many refugees got to the U.S. border anyway.

Neighboring Venezuela had the largest oil reserves in the world, and a lot of problems caused by all that money. It wasn’t helping the average Venezuelan and over seven million Venezuelans have left their oil-rich homeland since 2015. The endless violence in Venezuela means it is safer to be a Venezuelan anywhere but Venezuela. The primary cause of this is local strongman Nicolas Maduro, who has remained in control since 2020 because he purchased the support of military commanders, armed militias and foreign allies like Russia, China, Iran and Cuba. Maduro would have no useful foreign allies if it were not for the huge oil resources Venezuela sits on. The oil wealth has long been a source of political discord and violence and that is what has kept Maduro alive.

The oil wealth is only a century old. Oil production grew rapidly in the 1920s so that, when World War II broke out in 1939, Venezuela was the third largest producer after the United States and Russia. On the downside Venezuelan oil was more expensive to produce and refine because of its tar-like consistency. That meant Venezuela received less money per barrel than other nations. While Venezuela has the world’s largest proven reserves of oil still in the ground, this petroleum is not as valuable or as easy to pump and sell as elsewhere. That is a minor problem compared to chronic corruption. This has been the case since the beginning, before Spanish colonial rule was overthrown in the early 19th century. The post-colonial governments were largely democratic and less corrupt but not by much. The oil industry was owned by a few families and these families spent a lot of that money to maintain their ownership. Venezuelan oil assets were not nationalized until the 1970s and at that point government careers became far more attractive.

How to handle oil income was always a political issue but one reform government after another was corrupted by the oil wealth. The current Chavez/Maduro government began as another populist reform movement and quickly morphed into another corrupt cartel of cronies. One unique feature of the current corrupt rulers is that they have managed to do more economic harm to Venezuela than any previous political group. Moreover, the current government is relying more on foreign governments to survive. Worst of all the democratic opposition is more fragmented and unable to agree on how to remove the current dictatorship. Most of the 28 million remaining Venezuelans are barely surviving. That is what drove over seven million to flee the country. Those remaining are fixated on survival, not reforming the government.

The security forces are first in line for any economic benefits available. Maduro pays attention to advisors from Cuba, Russia and China. All three told him to allow some free enterprise because in small doses it boosts the economy without threatening Maduro’s rule. Maduro was also advised to let anyone leave the country if they wanted to, but to strictly control who could get back in. The basic advice was to remain in power because eventually the regional and international pressure would decline and ways around the sanctions would be found. Iran had nothing encouraging to say about that approach. This was what Russia was doing and, while Russia said they were doing fine in the face of continued sanctions, the average Russian described a different, and less encouraging reality. This was especially true since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Western nations, who provide customers and services that make Venezuelan oil profitable, are able to apply pressure on Maduro to behave. Maduro has not cooperated and currently the United States is offering a $15 million reward to anyone or any group that will make it possible for the U.S. to arrest and try Maduro for his crimes. As a cornered despot, Maduro must continue to rule or risk ending up in an American prison. Staying in power and avoiding a rebellion by angry Venezuelans forced Maduro to allow new presidential elections. Maduro believed he could manipulate the election process and get himself installed as a legitimate head of state. That would make him immune to any U.S. efforts to move Maduro to an American penitentiary.

In July 2024 there were national elections in Venezuela. Foreign observers were allowed in to monitor the voting. Maduro’s main opponent was the popular, and notably honest Edmundo Gonzalez. Poll watchers monitored the election and confirmed that Gonzalez won with 67 percent of the vote. Maduro insisted, without much evidence, that he had won with 52 percent. This led to large demonstrations by thousands of Gonzalez supporters. Maduro ordered that Gonzalez be arrested for election crimes. Gonzalez sought asylum in the Spanish embassy and that allowed him to reach Spain on September 7th.

Maduro still had the support of several countries, including Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and Cuba. Gonzalez was supported by the Americans, European Union and ten Latin American nations. This leaves Maduro an outlaw head of state who could, if need be, seek sanctuary in nearby Cuba. Sanctuary would be granted if Maduro brought with him some of the billions of dollars he stole while in office. That is not as easy as it used to be.

National leaders trying to flee their country with large amounts of money now have to deal with international restrictions on taking that much money with you. In the last decade international regulators helped Nigeria reclaim large sums which larcenous governors of Nigerian states sought to take with them into exile. Stolen money is no good if the only place you can take it is Iran, Cuba or North Korea. Cuba will actually help wealthy people bring their stolen money to Cuba but expects the wealthy visitor to pay large sums to the Cuban government to remain free and wealthy in communist Cuba. North Korea is another option but few wealthy outlaws take it because the North Koreans will take your wealth and then expel you if they have a chance to do so. Iran is somewhere in between. They will tax your wealth but living in an Islamic religious dictatorship is not pleasant for a foreigner.