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About Areas That Could Break Out Into War
January 4, 2008: Protests continued throughout Kenya, with
ethnic (tribal) clashes occurring in several towns. Opposition candidate Raila Odinga and his
supporters have called on President Mwai Kibaki to resign. Diplomats are
discussing ways to help diffuse the turmoil including "fact finding" missions
and possible vote recounts. A power-sharing deal between the Kibaki's PNU and
Odinga's ODM is another possibility. African, European, and American diplomats
are particularly dismayed at the post-election violence since Kenya is viewed
as a sub-Saharan African political success. It has been a success in comparison
to other nations, but that success is relative and the new violence shows it to
be tenuous. In 2002 Kibaki was elected on an anti-corruption platform, but
governmental corruption continues. Odinga actually supported Kibaki in that
election. In 2007 Odinga denounced Kibaki's failure to control corruption and
ran a populist campaign that targeted "the wealthy." In the election aftermath
it appears that to some ethnic Luo rioters "the wealthy" may be a code word for
Kikuyus. Kenyan sources reported a number of Kikuyu homes have been burned by
rioters. However, sensational media comparisons to Rwanda in 1994 are off
target. The 1994 Rwandan genocide was planned by Hutu radicals. Kenya in 2008
is not the isolated Rwanda of 1994. Nairobi is an international city with
instant media communications—there are a lot of eyes watching the violence.
Kenya has access to the sea. Kenya is also much wealthier than Rwanda. However,
the danger of tribal war is very real. In fact, the post-election violence is
already a low-level tribal war.
December 31, 2007: On December 30,
after incumbent president Mwai Kibaki was declared the winner of the December
27 presidential election, riots broke out in Nairobi and other Kenyan towns as
opposition groups protested the results. By December 31, at least 125 people
were reported killed in rioting. Major protests occurred in Nairobi, in Kisumu,
in the port of Mombasa (Kenya's major port), and in Nakuru. Opposition
candidate Raila Odinga and his supporters rejected the government's claim
that Kibaki had won. The government
count gave Odinga 4.35 million votes and Kibaki 4.58 million votes. Pre-election
polls indicated Odinga was well ahead of Kibaki. The chief issue in the
election was the endemic corruption in Kenya's government. There was also the
issue of tribal favoritism. Kibaki is a Kikuyu. Odinga is a Luo. The Kikuyu are
Kenya's "business tribe" and tend to be wealthier and have more access to
education opportunities. Odinga draws a lot of political support from the Luo
tribe. Kikuyus account for around 22
percent of Kenya's population of 37
million. The Luhya (Baluyia) are 14 percent and Luo 13 percent. Many Luhya
support Odinga's coalition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Kibaki's party is the Party of National Unity
(PNU).