August 25, 2025:
Russian military strength in 2020 was third to China and the United States. Russia had nearly a million active duty troops and about 12,000 tanks. Most of them are older models. By 2025 Russia was still number 3, but three years of war in Ukraine had destroyed most of Russia’s tanks, killed about a million soldiers and caused over a million Russian military age men to flee the country. Ever-growing Western economic sanctions have weakened the economy and by 2025 nearly all the national cash reserves had been spent keeping the economy going. Between now and 2030 Russian and Western economists agree that the Russian economy is in bad shape, a condition made worse since the government has converted it to a war economy, meaning civilian and infrastructure needs are neglected to support the war effort.
Even Russian government and business leaders agree that another five years of sanctions and war in Ukraine will do substantial and possibly long term damage to the economy. The West wants the Russians out of Ukraine for sanctions to be lifted. Putin cannot afford not to have them lifted. He is trying to determine how much of occupied Ukrainian territory he will have to surrender to get his economy running. The Ukrainians want it all back and the only concession they are willing to consider is a reduction in the hundreds of billions in reparations they are demanding for property destroyed and Ukrainian lives lost. So far about 75,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died, along with at least 12,000 civilians.
Economically, the Ukrainians can outwait the Russians. Several hundred billion dollars in military and economic investment have come from the West, and the amount of investment money continues.
The Ukrainian economy never faltered during the war. During the first six months of the invasion the Ukrainian GDP grew 29 percent. In 2023 the growth was 3.9 percent, followed by 2.9 percent in 2024 and between 2.5 and 3.5 percent in 2025. After that annual growth is expected to be 3-4 percent a year.
The Western investments will keep coming because Ukraine and its NATO supporters agree that continued economic and GDP growth is best for Ukraine as is visible defeat and continued sanctions on an economically ravaged Russia. The sanctions will be lifted as Russian forces withdraw from Ukrainian territory and stand by as Ukraine joins NATO. That makes another Russian attack on Ukraine unlikely as, if your attack one NATO member, every other NATO member is supposed to join in the defense. Russia has already seen this in action as NATO came to the aid of a nation that was preparing to join NATO.
Russia justified the invasion because it felt threatened by more of its neighbors joining NATO. Russia demonstrated the effectiveness of NATO in combat for the first time as NATO support proved vital in the Ukrainian victory. This was the first time NATO came to the aid of a member, or rather a candidate member. It’s a lesson all NATO members hope Russia absorbs and understands.