October 26, 2025: Since 1949, NATO has been preparing to defend Western Europe from a Russian attack. Until 1989, Russia had massed several hundred thousand troops in East Germany, along with several thousand tanks, most of them T-72s. Thousands more tanks were stationed in Ukraine, then part of the Soviet Union. In 1989, when the wall dividing Russian-controlled East Berlin from NATO-controlled West Berlin came down, the situation changed in a radical and unexpected way.

Back then, Russia was called the Soviet Union because it had more territory and twice as many people as the current Russian Federation. In 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed into 14 independent nations. The two largest were the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The current Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, always wanted to rebuild the Soviet Union and began doing so in 2014 by seizing several Ukrainian provinces. He then invaded Ukraine in early 2022. Ukraine was seeking to join NATO, and its application was being processed. To become a NATO member, Ukraine had to acquire Western tanks and warplanes because NATO requires all members to use similar weapons, not Russian ones. The Ukrainians were in the process of converting when Russia attacked, as Russia wanted Ukraine to be part of a new Russian Empire, not the NATO alliance that defends members from Russian aggression.

The Russian attack did not go well, with their initial force losing most of its tanks and more than half a million soldiers dead, wounded, missing, or taken prisoner. This was a startling revelation to NATO and a major disappointment to Russia. NATO had amassed substantial forces to defeat a Russian attack, and that attack eventually came in early 2022 against NATO applicant Ukraine. This clarified the long-unanswered question of what would have happened if Russia had attacked NATO forces during the 1949–1991 Cold War. The Russian attack against Ukraine was not as massive as the one the Soviet Union’s forces in Eastern Europe were prepared to launch against NATO forces in West Germany and beyond.

The Ukrainians halted the Russian attack and inflicted heavy casualties on the Russians while doing so. After a year of fighting, the Russians had lost most of their modern tanks, along with nearly half a million troops killed, wounded, or missing. A growing number of Russian soldiers preferred desertion or surrendering to Ukrainian forces over dying in Ukraine. Over a million military-age Russian men left the country, legally or otherwise, to escape military service and the possibility of death or disabling wounds in Ukraine.

This made it clear that a war between NATO and Russia would be one-sided, even without the Americans. European NATO nations can raise far more troops and equip them with more tanks, warplanes, and warships than Russia can muster. Since 2022, NATO nations have been preparing for an eventual Russian attack. For over three years, invading Russian forces have been fighting in Ukraine. One reason Russia gave for invading was Ukraine’s effort to join NATO and gain the protection of the NATO alliance, which includes the United States, in addition to well-armed nearby states like Poland, Germany, and France. Russia did not want to fight the NATO alliance.

While NATO could not justify sending troops to Ukraine, it could and did send nearly $400 billion worth of weapons and economic aid. Initially, the Americans were the largest contributor, but as the war continued, European contributions increased while U.S. shipments declined. NATO continues to support Ukraine because that is what NATO was established to do in 1949. The threat then was the aggressive Soviet Union, which never attacked.

When the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, the largest and most aggressive successor state was the Russian Federation, led by men who wanted to rebuild the Soviet empire and decided in 2021 to start with Ukraine. The Russian invasion reminded other NATO states that the Russian threat still existed and was very real. At the same time, Russia is aware that NATO countries can muster more military forces than Russia and possess far larger economic resources.

NATO nations are planning to increase the number of soldiers in their peacetime forces, which means a return to conscription. Without the war in Ukraine, European voters would not have approved the return of conscription as a necessary step to increase the size of their armed forces. NATO nations have large enough populations of military-age men to do this, in addition to enormous economic resources.

NATO members, including the United States, accounted for nearly half of the $2.4 trillion in global defense spending in 2022. NATO spending continued increasing faster than global spending because of the war in Ukraine. For example, Denmark announced that it would gradually increase defense spending over the next ten years until it reaches about $21 billion. At that point, defense spending would be three times what it was in 2022 and would meet the NATO-suggested two percent of GDP. Denmark had long spent much less, safe in the knowledge that the United States and larger NATO members met or exceeded the spending goal applicable to all NATO members.

This annoyed the United States, but America has the largest economy in the world and military commitments worldwide. The U.S. has long had the largest defense budget in the world. During the 1948–1991 Cold War, European NATO members believed their job was to keep the Americans in, the Germans down, and the Russians out.

By 2025, the Americans had proof that the Europeans could defend themselves from Russian aggression if they had to. The U.S. was increasingly committed to dealing with China, which meant its largest military commitment was in the Pacific theater. The Europeans were on their own but could still get some support from the United States, like specialized military services and a source for new weapons designs.

The Europeans accepted this new reality and are increasing their defense spending and expanding their active-duty and reserve military forces. Outwardly, Russia proclaims superiority over European forces. However, privately, Russian military planners and intelligence experts see a realistic opportunity for European nations to create armed forces capable of dealing with any Russian aggression.